Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 15, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Austin Gomber - Rockies
  • Michael King - Padres

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

On May 15, 2024, the San Diego Padres will face off against the Colorado Rockies at Petco Park. As a National League West matchup, this game holds importance for both teams as they strive to improve their standings.

The Padres, with a record of 22-22 this season, are having an average performance. They will be playing on home turf and will look to capitalize on this advantage. The Rockies, on the other hand, have struggled with a record of 13-28, making this season a challenging one for them.

The Padres are projected to start right-handed pitcher Michael King, who has been performing well this year. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, King is ranked as the 37th best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. This suggests that he is a reliable pitcher and can be a valuable asset for the Padres in this game.

In contrast, the Rockies are projected to start left-handed pitcher Austin Gomber. Gomber has had a tough season, ranking as one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. This could potentially work in favor of the Padres' offense.

Looking at the offensive performance, the Padres rank as the 9th best team in MLB, indicating a strong lineup. However, their team batting average ranks 20th in the league, suggesting room for improvement in this aspect. On the other hand, the Rockies' offense ranks lower, sitting at 21st in MLB. Their team batting average is average at 18th in the league.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Padres have an advantage with the 7th best bullpen in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. The Rockies' bullpen is ranked 13th, making it an average contender.

Considering the projections, Michael King is expected to pitch around 5.9 innings, allowing an average of 1.9 earned runs. He is also projected to strike out 7.1 batters, but may struggle with allowing 4.7 hits and 1.4 walks. Austin Gomber, on the other hand, is projected to pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs. His strikeout projection is low at 3.3, and he may face challenges with allowing 5.5 hits and 1.7 walks.

In terms of betting odds, the Padres are the clear favorites with a moneyline of -245, giving them an implied win probability of 68%. The Rockies, as the underdogs, have a moneyline of +205, giving them an implied win probability of 32%.

Overall, the Padres have the advantage in this game, with a stronger pitcher and a better-ranked offense. However, anything can happen in baseball, and the Rockies will be looking to defy the odds and pull off an upset. It will be an intriguing matchup to watch as both teams battle it out on the field.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Austin Gomber is projected to throw 85 pitches in today's outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 6th-least of the day.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

San Diego's #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Brenton Doyle, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Today’s version of the Rockies projected offense is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .294 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .314 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

With 6 hitters who share his hand in the opposing team's projected batting order, Michael King figures to benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Kyle Higashioka has big-time power (82nd percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (28.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Austin Gomber doesn't generate many whiffs (20th percentile K%) — great news for Higashioka.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen projects as the 7th-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+7.55 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+7.45 Units / 93% ROI)
• Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 22 games at home (+7.65 Units / 30% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 2.97 vs San Diego Padres 4.45

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.