Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 15, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Abbott - Reds
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks are set to host the Cincinnati Reds at Chase Field on May 15, 2024, in an exciting National League matchup. The D-Backs hold a record of 20-22 this season, putting them below average, while the struggling Reds sit at 17-24.

In this game, the D-Backs are projected to start right-handed pitcher Brandon Pfaadt, who has had an average performance this season. He has started eight games, with a win/loss record of 1-3 and an ERA of 4.60. However, his 3.67 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. On the other side, the Reds are projected to start left-handed pitcher Andrew Abbott, who has had a below-average season with a 2-4 record and an ERA of 3.35. His 4.52 xFIP indicates that he has been lucky and may not perform as well in the future.

The D-Backs offense has been one of the best in MLB this season, ranking 8th overall. They excel in team batting average and stolen bases, ranking 11th and 3rd, respectively. The Reds offense, on the other hand, has struggled and ranks 27th in MLB. While they have performed well in team batting average and stolen bases, ranking 14th and 1st, respectively, their overall performance has been subpar.

When it comes to the bullpens, the D-Backs rank 18th in MLB, while the Reds rank 22nd, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. This suggests that both teams have an average bullpen at best.

Based on the current odds, the D-Backs are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -140 and an implied win probability of 56%. The Reds are the underdogs with a moneyline of +120 and an implied win probability of 44%. The D-Backs have a higher implied team total of 4.54 runs, while the Reds sit at an average of 3.96 runs.

In this matchup, the D-Backs have the advantage with their strong offense and the presence of Brandon Pfaadt on the mound. Additionally, the Reds' struggles on offense and Andrew Abbott's below-average performance make them the underdogs in this game. However, anything can happen in baseball, and the Reds may find a way to overcome the odds.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Andrew Abbott is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #29 HR venue among all stadiums in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

This season, there has been a decline in Elly De La Cruz's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 30.53 ft/sec last year to 29.91 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds' bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Brandon Pfaadt's sinker utilization has increased by 9.7% from last season to this one (9.9% to 19.6%) .

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Extreme groundball hitters like Eugenio Suarez tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Andrew Abbott.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

In today's game, Blaze Alexander is at a disadvantage facing the league's 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 36.8% rate (92nd percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 35 games (+6.00 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 away games (+5.45 Units / 24% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+16.20 Units / 58% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.72 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.29

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