Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets Prediction For 5/27/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers

May 27, 2024

New York Mets

New York Mets
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 27, 2024
  • Venue: Citi Field
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Gavin Stone - Dodgers
    • Tylor Megill - Mets

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Dodgers -150, Mets 130
Runline: Dodgers -1.5 110, Mets 1.5 -130
Over/Under Total: 8.5 -120

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Los Angeles Dodgers - 58% Los Angeles Dodgers - 54.86%
New York Mets - 42% New York Mets - 45.14%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are set to face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 27, 2024, at Citi Field. The Mets will be the home team for this National League matchup. It has been a challenging season for the Mets, with a record of 22-30, while the Dodgers have been performing exceptionally well with a record of 33-22.

The Mets are projected to start right-handed pitcher Tylor Megill, who has shown promise with an ERA of 3.00. However, his 4.59 xFIP suggests that he may not perform as well going forward. On the other hand, the Dodgers are expected to start right-handed pitcher Gavin Stone, who has a solid ERA of 3.60 but also has a higher xFIP. This could indicate potential regression in his performance.

The Mets' offense ranks as the 17th best in MLB, with an average team batting average and home run ranking. In contrast, the Dodgers have one of the best offenses in the league, ranking second in overall performance and home runs.

According to the advanced-stat Power Rankings, the Dodgers have the advantage in both bullpen performance, ranking 17th, compared to the Mets' ranking of 21st. However, it's important to note that these rankings are based on underlying talent and not necessarily year-to-date performance.

In terms of recent performance, the Mets' best hitter over the last seven games has been Harrison Bader, recording 4 RBIs, 1 home run, and 2 stolen bases. For the Dodgers, Teoscar Hernandez has been their standout hitter, with a batting average of .389 and an OPS of 1.244 over the last week.

Considering the pitching matchup and offensive performance, the Dodgers appear to have an edge in this game. However, baseball is an unpredictable sport, and anything can happen on any given day. Fans and bettors alike will be eagerly watching this exciting matchup between the Mets and the Dodgers.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Stone to throw 85 pitches today (13th-most of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

  • Pitchers who throw a lot of pitches are more likely to go deeper into the game, record more outs, and generate more strikeouts.

Andy Pages is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of New York (#3-worst of all teams on the slate today).

  • This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Los Angeles Dodgers projected lineup profiles as the best of all teams today in terms of overall batting skill.

  • A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

This season, Tylor Megill has introduced a new pitch to his repertoire (a cut-fastball), utilizing it on 12.8% of his pitches.

  • Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.

Starling Marte has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (76% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this game.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets' bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 20 games at home (+10.15 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 19 away games (+6.50 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Enrique Hernandez has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+8.70 Units / 67% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.31 vs New York Mets 4.53

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-135
75% LAD
+114
25% NYM

Total Pick Consensus

8.5/-115
12% UN
8.5/-105
88% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/+120
90% LAD
+1.5/-142
10% NYM

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
LAD
Team Stats
NYM
4.26
ERA
4.55
.239
Batting Avg Against
.248
1.24
WHIP
1.38
.288
BABIP
.297
7.8%
BB%
9.9%
23.0%
K%
22.5%
70.6%
LOB%
72.3%
.252
Batting Avg
.236
.456
SLG
.399
.795
OPS
.715
.339
OBP
.317
LAD
Team Records
NYM
32-19
Home
26-26
28-22
Road
25-22
34-31
vRHP
36-33
26-10
vLHP
15-15
29-22
vs>.500
25-29
31-19
vs<.500
26-19
5-5
Last10
7-3
10-10
Last20
11-9
17-13
Last30
19-11
G. Stone
T. Megill
12.0
Innings
81.1
3
GS
17
0-0
W-L
6-6
12.75
ERA
5.64
6.00
K/9
7.08
6.00
BB/9
4.43
0.75
HR/9
1.22
52.0%
LOB%
64.8%
7.7%
HR/FB%
12.0%
5.02
FIP
5.08
5.71
xFIP
5.17
.444
AVG
.296
11.3%
K%
17.1%
11.3%
BB%
10.7%
5.89
SIERA
5.30

G. Stone

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

T. Megill

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/4 ATL
Anderson N/A
L2-9 N/A
5.1
4
3
3
9
2
63-94
4/29 PHI
Nola N/A
W3-0 N/A
5
0
0
0
5
3
53-88
4/24 ARI
Bumgarner N/A
W6-2 N/A
6.2
5
2
2
7
1
65-92
4/19 SF
Cobb N/A
W5-4 N/A
6
7
4
4
4
2
58-87
4/12 PHI
Wheeler N/A
W2-0 N/A
5.1
3
0
0
5
0
49-76

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
LAD NYM
LAD NYM
Consensus
-156
+131
-138
+114
-148
+124
-135
+114
-156
+132
-132
+112
-139
+120
-134
+114
-140
+118
-135
+115
-150
+125
-135
+115
Open
Current
Book
LAD NYM
LAD NYM
Consensus
-1.5 (+100)
+1.5 (-120)
-1.5 (+115)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+114)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-142)
-1.5 (+100)
+1.5 (-120)
-1.5 (+122)
+1.5 (-146)
-1.5 (+117)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-152)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-130)
-1.5 (+115)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-155)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
7.5 (-150)
7.5 (+120)
8.5 (-108)
8.5 (-116)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
9.0 (-105)
9.0 (-115)
8.5 (-104)
8.5 (-118)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-106)
8.5 (-104)
8.5 (-118)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)