Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres Best Bet – 5/27/2024

Miami Marlins

Miami Marlins

May 27, 2024

San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 27, 2024
  • Venue: Petco Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Trevor Rogers - Marlins
    • Michael King - Padres

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Marlins 155, Padres -180
Runline: Marlins 1.5 -140, Padres -1.5 120
Over/Under Total: 7.5 -120

Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Miami Marlins - 38% Miami Marlins - 36.01%
San Diego Padres - 62% San Diego Padres - 63.99%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres are set to host the Miami Marlins on May 27, 2024, at Petco Park. With the Padres serving as the home team, this National League matchup promises to be an interesting contest.

Both teams have had contrasting seasons so far. The Padres hold a record of 28-28, which can be considered average. On the other hand, the Marlins have struggled with a record of 19-35, indicating a rough season for them.

Taking the mound for the Padres is right-handed pitcher Michael King. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, King is ranked as the 46th best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. This suggests that King is a solid pitcher. In contrast, the Marlins will rely on left-handed pitcher Trevor Rogers. Despite his struggles this season, Rogers has shown potential, and our projections indicate that he may improve going forward.

In terms of offensive prowess, the Padres have an advantage over the Marlins. The Padres rank 10th in MLB in overall offensive performance, showcasing their underlying talent. However, their batting average puts them at a lower rank of 20th. They excel in terms of home runs (10th) and stolen bases (7th). On the other hand, the Marlins have struggled offensively, ranking 29th in MLB. However, they boast an impressive 3rd place ranking in team batting average despite their overall struggles.

Based on the current odds, the Padres are the betting favorites, with a moneyline of -180 and an implied win probability of 62%. The Marlins, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +155 and an implied win probability of 38%.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Trevor Rogers has recorded 13.7 outs per game per started this year, ranking in the 12th percentile.

  • A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Since the start of last season, Jake Burger's 16.4% Barrel%, an advanced standard for measuring power, places him in the 98th percentile among his peers.

  • Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Nick Gordon hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 81st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Considering the 0.41 discrepancy between Michael King's 4.28 ERA and his 3.87 estimated true talent ERA (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball this year and ought to perform better going forward.

  • Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Donovan Solano's footspeed has decreased this year. His 25.36 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.85 ft/sec now.

  • Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Projected catcher Luis Campusano grades out as a horrible pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

  • Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+7.25 Units / 69% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 39 games (+6.50 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Under in 24 of his last 30 games (+16.10 Units / 36% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.85 vs San Diego Padres 4.93

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+169
14% MIA
-203
86% SD

Total Pick Consensus

7.5/-115
1% UN
7.5/-105
99% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-125
6% MIA
-1.5/+105
94% SD

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
MIA
Team Stats
SD
4.18
ERA
3.83
.242
Batting Avg Against
.237
1.28
WHIP
1.28
.302
BABIP
.289
8.3%
BB%
9.0%
25.2%
K%
23.5%
72.5%
LOB%
75.4%
.262
Batting Avg
.240
.402
SLG
.413
.719
OPS
.739
.317
OBP
.327
MIA
Team Records
SD
18-31
Home
26-27
14-32
Road
24-21
27-35
vRHP
35-32
5-28
vLHP
15-16
20-35
vs>.500
26-28
12-28
vs<.500
24-20
2-8
Last10
4-6
6-14
Last20
12-8
10-20
Last30
16-14
T. Rogers
M. King
18.0
Innings
N/A
4
GS
N/A
1-2
W-L
N/A
4.00
ERA
N/A
9.50
K/9
N/A
3.00
BB/9
N/A
1.00
HR/9
N/A
72.1%
LOB%
N/A
10.5%
HR/FB%
N/A
4.10
FIP
N/A
4.39
xFIP
N/A
.229
AVG
N/A
24.1%
K%
N/A
7.6%
BB%
N/A
4.04
SIERA
N/A

T. Rogers

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/3 ARI
Castellanos N/A
L4-5 N/A
4.1
6
5
5
4
2
42-78
4/28 WSH
Corbin N/A
W3-2 N/A
6
2
1
1
4
2
58-91
4/22 ATL
Wright N/A
L0-3 N/A
5
4
1
0
4
2
63-95
4/16 PHI
Suarez N/A
L3-10 N/A
1.2
4
7
7
3
4
39-63
4/10 SF
DeSclafani N/A
L2-3 N/A
5
6
3
2
3
1
48-74

M. King

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
6/28 LAA
Bundy N/A
L3-5 N/A
4.1
6
3
2
4
2
50-77
6/23 KC
Duffy N/A
W6-5 N/A
4.2
3
2
2
5
3
44-72
6/17 TOR
Zeuch N/A
W8-4 N/A
4.1
5
3
3
1
2
41-60
6/10 MIN
Happ N/A
L5-7 N/A
3.2
4
2
2
3
3
40-69
6/4 BOS
Eovaldi N/A
L2-5 N/A
5.1
6
4
4
5
0
49-66

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
MIA SD
MIA SD
Consensus
+152
-175
+169
-203
+154
-185
+170
-205
+146
-174
+172
-205
+150
-180
+170
-210
+158
-190
+170
-205
+155
-190
+155
-190
Open
Current
Book
MIA SD
MIA SD
Consensus
+1.5 (-125)
-1.5 (+121)
+1.5 (-125)
-1.5 (+103)
+1.5 (-125)
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-125)
-1.5 (+105)
+1.5 (-122)
-1.5 (+122)
+1.5 (-122)
-1.5 (+102)
+1.5 (-124)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-124)
-1.5 (+102)
+1.5 (-120)
-1.5 (+118)
+1.5 (-120)
-1.5 (+100)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+110)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
7.5 (-120)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-106)
7.5 (-116)
7.5 (-120)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-102)
7.5 (-118)
7.5 (-122)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-104)
7.5 (-118)
8.0 (-103)
8.0 (-120)
7.5 (-109)
7.5 (-112)
7.5 (-120)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-125)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-115)