Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners Prediction & Picks 6/2/2024

Los Angeles Angels

Los Angeles Angels

Jun 2, 2024

Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: June 2, 2024
  • Venue: T-Mobile Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Griffin Canning - Angels
    • Luis Castillo - Mariners

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Angels 170, Mariners -200
Runline: Angels 1.5 -135, Mariners -1.5 115
Over/Under Total: 7.5 105

Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Los Angeles Angels - 36% Los Angeles Angels - 33.08%
Seattle Mariners - 64% Seattle Mariners - 66.92%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

On June 2, 2024, the Seattle Mariners will host the Los Angeles Angels in an American League West matchup at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners, with a season record of 33-27, are having a good season, while the struggling Angels sit at 21-37. The game is the third in the series between these two teams.

The Mariners will send right-handed pitcher Luis Castillo to the mound. Castillo has been impressive this season, boasting a win-loss record of 4-6 and an ERA of 3.28. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Castillo is ranked as the #37 best starting pitcher in MLB, out of approximately 350 pitchers. With an average projection of 6.3 innings pitched and 2.1 earned runs allowed, Castillo is expected to put up a strong performance. However, he tends to allow a high number of hits and walks, which could be a concern.

Opposing Castillo will be Griffin Canning, another right-handed pitcher. Canning has struggled this season, with a win-loss record of 2-4 and an ERA of 5.08. Our advanced-stat Power Rankings consider him one of the worst pitchers in MLB. Canning is projected to pitch an average of 5.4 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs. He also struggles with hits and walks, making it a challenging matchup for him against the Mariners.

In terms of offense, the Mariners rank as the #27 best in MLB, while the Angels sit at #13. The Mariners have an average team batting average, but they excel in home runs, ranking 13th in the league. The Angels, on the other hand, have a powerful offense, ranking 3rd in team home runs. However, they struggle in stolen bases, ranking 27th.

When analyzing the bullpens, the Mariners rank #19, while the Angels have the worst bullpen in MLB, ranking #30. This could give the Mariners an advantage in the later innings of the game.

The betting odds heavily favor the Mariners, with a moneyline of -195 and an implied win probability of 64%. The Angels, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +165 and an implied win probability of 36%. Based on the current odds, the Mariners have a high implied team total of 4.32 runs, while the Angels have a low implied team total of 3.18 runs.

With the Mariners having the advantage in starting pitching, offense, and bullpen, they are the favorite for this game. However, the Angels' powerful offense could pose a threat to Luis Castillo's flyball tendencies. It will be interesting to see how these factors play out on the field.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Griffin Canning's fastball velocity has dropped 1.3 mph this season (92.7 mph) below where it was last year (94 mph).

  • Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Willie Calhoun's quickness has decreased this season. His 24.98 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.45 ft/sec now.

  • Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Kevin Pillar pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.6% — 95th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Luis Castillo has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 6.5 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.

  • Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.284) implies that Dominic Canzone has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his .208 actual batting average.

  • xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Cal Raleigh, the Mariners's expected catcher today, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

  • Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games at home (+8.70 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 away games (+7.30 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Willie Calhoun has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 14 away games (+7.50 Units / 45% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 3.22 vs Seattle Mariners 4.39

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+174
9% LAA
-207
91% SEA

Total Pick Consensus

7.0/-120
8% UN
7.0/+100
92% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-125
4% LAA
-1.5/+105
96% SEA

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
LAA
Team Stats
SEA
4.58
ERA
3.72
.247
Batting Avg Against
.233
1.39
WHIP
1.18
.301
BABIP
.287
9.9%
BB%
7.0%
23.6%
K%
24.6%
71.2%
LOB%
72.3%
.251
Batting Avg
.237
.437
SLG
.403
.761
OPS
.719
.324
OBP
.315
LAA
Team Records
SEA
22-29
Home
31-21
21-28
Road
22-28
35-47
vRHP
39-36
8-10
vLHP
14-13
27-42
vs>.500
27-30
16-15
vs<.500
26-19
6-4
Last10
4-6
9-11
Last20
8-12
15-15
Last30
12-18
G. Canning
L. Castillo
88.1
Innings
143.1
16
GS
24
6-4
W-L
8-7
4.69
ERA
3.14
9.78
K/9
10.23
2.65
BB/9
2.26
1.73
HR/9
1.44
74.8%
LOB%
78.5%
18.5%
HR/FB%
14.7%
4.62
FIP
3.92
3.82
xFIP
3.61
.249
AVG
.209
25.6%
K%
28.2%
6.9%
BB%
6.2%
3.83
SIERA
3.53

G. Canning

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
7/2 BAL
Akin N/A
W8-7 N/A
2.2
6
6
6
0
2
39-62
6/25 TB
Kittredge N/A
L3-4 N/A
5
6
3
2
4
2
53-91
6/16 OAK
Irvin N/A
L4-8 N/A
5
3
2
2
2
2
45-69
6/9 KC
Keller N/A
W6-1 N/A
6.2
5
1
1
6
2
60-89
6/3 SEA
Sheffield N/A
L2-6 N/A
3.1
6
4
4
5
2
50-80

L. Castillo

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
10/1 PIT
Crowe N/A
L2-9 N/A
5.1
6
1
1
5
3
59-94
9/23 WSH
Corbin N/A
L2-3 N/A
6
6
2
2
6
3
72-105
9/17 LAD
Buehler N/A
W3-1 N/A
6.1
5
0
0
10
2
72-111
9/11 STL
Mikolas N/A
L4-6 N/A
7
8
4
4
5
1
64-101
9/5 DET
Mize N/A
L1-4 N/A
6
4
3
1
7
2
60-91

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
LAA SEA
LAA SEA
Consensus
+169
-200
+174
-207
+164
-198
+180
-218
+176
-210
+176
-210
+175
-210
+165
-200
+162
-195
+175
-210
+165
-200
+170
-210
Open
Current
Book
LAA SEA
LAA SEA
Consensus
+1.5 (-131)
-1.5 (-102)
+1.5 (-131)
-1.5 (+109)
+1.5 (-125)
-1.5 (+114)
+1.5 (-125)
-1.5 (+105)
+1.5 (-128)
-1.5 (+105)
+1.5 (-128)
-1.5 (+106)
+1.5 (-141)
-1.5 (+106)
+1.5 (-141)
-1.5 (+116)
+1.5 (-130)
-1.5 (+115)
+1.5 (-130)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-125)
-1.5 (+105)
+1.5 (-125)
-1.5 (+105)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
7.5 (-108)
7.5 (-112)
7.0 (-101)
7.0 (-120)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-115)
7.0 (+100)
7.0 (-120)
7.5 (-106)
7.5 (-114)
7.0 (-102)
7.0 (-120)
7.5 (-106)
7.5 (-114)
7.0 (-104)
7.0 (-118)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-115)
7.0 (+100)
7.0 (-120)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-115)
7.0 (+100)
7.0 (-120)