St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies Pick & Prediction – 6/2/2024

St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals

Jun 2, 2024

Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: June 2, 2024
  • Venue: Citizens Bank Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Lance Lynn - Cardinals
    • Taijuan Walker - Phillies

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Cardinals 120, Phillies -140
Runline: Cardinals 1.5 -165, Phillies -1.5 145
Over/Under Total: 9 -110

St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
St. Louis Cardinals - 44% St. Louis Cardinals - 43.98%
Philadelphia Phillies - 56% Philadelphia Phillies - 56.02%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated matchup, the Philadelphia Phillies are set to face off against the St. Louis Cardinals on June 2, 2024. The game will take place at Citizens Bank Park, with the Phillies playing as the home team. This National League showdown promises an exciting clash between two teams with contrasting records this season.

The Phillies currently hold an impressive 41-18 record, making them one of the top teams in the league. Led by their stellar offense, the Phillies have been dominating their opponents and showing no signs of slowing down. In fact, their offense ranks as the 4th best in MLB, boasting a strong batting average and an ability to generate runs. This season, their best hitter has been a standout performer, contributing significantly to the team's success.

On the other hand, the Cardinals have had a below-average season so far, with a record of 27-29. Their offense has struggled to find consistency, ranking 20th in MLB. Nevertheless, they have managed to showcase their power, ranking an impressive 5th in team home runs.

Taking the mound for the Phillies will be Taijuan Walker, a right-handed pitcher. While Walker's overall statistics may not be impressive, our advanced-stat Power Rankings place him as the #221 best starting pitcher in MLB. This suggests that he has room for improvement and could perform better going forward.

Opposing Walker will be Lance Lynn, also a right-handed pitcher. Lynn boasts solid numbers this season, including a 2-3 win/loss record and a 3.45 ERA. However, his 4.27 xFIP indicates that he may have been fortunate so far and could potentially see a decline in performance.

Considering the projected performance of both pitchers, the game is expected to be closely contested. The Phillies have an implied win probability of 55%, while the Cardinals have a 45% implied win probability, according to current betting markets. This indicates a competitive matchup with a high degree of uncertainty.

With the game total set at 9.0 runs, we can anticipate an exciting battle between the potent Phillies offense and the Cardinals' power-hitting lineup. Both teams have the potential to put runs on the board, making this game an enticing prospect for baseball enthusiasts and sports bettors alike.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Out of all starting pitchers, Lance Lynn's fastball spin rate of 2467 rpm grades out in the 84th percentile this year.

  • Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (24.5) suggests that Matt Carpenter has been unlucky since the start of last season with his 12.7 actual HR/600.

  • xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals' bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Taijuan Walker will wring up 16.8 outs in this game.

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Since the start of last season, Kyle Schwarber's 16.3% Barrel%, an advanced stat for measuring power, places him in the 97th percentile among his peers.

  • Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Brandon Marsh has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 42 games (+17.90 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 47 games (+6.90 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Bryson Stott has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.00 Units / 59% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.57 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.92

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+118
12% STL
-139
88% PHI

Total Pick Consensus

9.5/-105
18% UN
9.5/-115
82% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-162
3% STL
-1.5/+136
97% PHI

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
STL
Team Stats
PHI
4.59
ERA
3.95
.268
Batting Avg Against
.238
1.43
WHIP
1.24
.322
BABIP
.290
8.3%
BB%
7.8%
20.4%
K%
23.8%
69.8%
LOB%
72.2%
.259
Batting Avg
.255
.436
SLG
.419
.770
OPS
.742
.333
OBP
.323
STL
Team Records
PHI
26-22
Home
37-16
27-26
Road
27-21
37-37
vRHP
40-20
16-11
vLHP
24-17
26-30
vs>.500
29-19
27-18
vs<.500
35-18
5-5
Last10
5-5
11-9
Last20
11-9
17-13
Last30
17-13
L. Lynn
T. Walker
N/A
Innings
131.2
N/A
GS
24
N/A
W-L
13-5
N/A
ERA
4.03
N/A
K/9
7.25
N/A
BB/9
3.76
N/A
HR/9
1.16
N/A
LOB%
75.6%
N/A
HR/FB%
12.5%
N/A
FIP
4.68
N/A
xFIP
4.69

L. Lynn

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
10/7 HOU
Jr N/A
L1-6 N/A
3.2
6
5
5
4
2
46-76
10/1 DET
Peralta N/A
W8-1 N/A
5
4
1
1
4
1
54-81
9/25 CLE
Morgan N/A
L0-6 N/A
6
7
6
6
6
0
70-105
9/18 TEX
Howard N/A
L1-2 N/A
5.1
6
2
1
5
2
53-83
9/12 BOS
Pivetta N/A
W2-1 N/A
5
2
0
0
9
0
47-70

T. Walker

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
4/30 PHI
Gibson N/A
L1-4 N/A
5
2
0
0
1
2
44-73
4/11 PHI
Suarez N/A
L4-5 N/A
2
0
0
0
4
0
20-30
9/29 MIA
Hernandez N/A
L2-3 N/A
7.1
2
2
2
5
3
57-90
9/22 BOS
Sale N/A
L5-12 N/A
2
6
6
6
1
2
32-55
9/17 PHI
Wheeler N/A
L3-4 N/A
5
3
2
2
3
0
60-88

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
STL PHI
STL PHI
Consensus
+120
-140
+118
-139
+114
-135
+120
-142
+120
-142
+118
-138
+120
-139
+118
-137
+115
-135
+118
-140
+115
-140
+115
-140
Open
Current
Book
STL PHI
STL PHI
Consensus
+1.5 (-171)
-1.5 (+142)
+1.5 (-171)
-1.5 (+142)
+1.5 (-166)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-166)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-164)
-1.5 (+136)
+1.5 (-164)
-1.5 (+136)
+1.5 (-186)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-186)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-165)
-1.5 (+143)
+1.5 (-165)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-165)
-1.5 (+145)
+1.5 (-165)
-1.5 (+135)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.5 (-128)
8.5 (+107)
9.5 (-111)
9.5 (-109)
8.5 (-118)
8.5 (-102)
9.5 (-112)
9.5 (-108)
9.0 (-112)
9.0 (-108)
9.5 (-115)
9.5 (-105)
8.5 (-122)
8.5 (+100)
9.5 (-110)
9.5 (-109)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (+100)
9.5 (-115)
9.5 (-105)
9.0 (+100)
9.0 (-120)
9.5 (-110)
9.5 (-110)