Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 21, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Griffin Canning - Angels
  • Cristian Javier - Astros

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

On May 21, 2024, the Houston Astros will host the Los Angeles Angels in an American League West matchup at Minute Maid Park. The Astros are looking to bounce back from a disappointing season, currently holding a 21-27 record. Meanwhile, the Angels have struggled even more, with a 19-29 record, making this a battle between two teams having a tough time.

The Astros will have Cristian Javier on the mound, a right-handed pitcher who has shown promise with a 3-1 record and an impressive ERA of 3.23 this season. However, his peripheral indicators, such as his 5.17 xFIP, suggest he may have been lucky and could regress. On the other side, the Angels will rely on Griffin Canning, who has a 2-4 record and a less favorable ERA of 5.21.

In their last meeting, the Angels came out on top with a 9-7 victory over the Astros. However, the Astros' offense has been solid this season, ranking as the fourth-best in MLB. Their best hitter, Kyle Tucker, has been consistent, with a .288 batting average and 15 home runs. The Angels, while struggling overall, have shown power with the third-most home runs in the league. Their top hitter, Taylor Ward, has a .281 batting average and 10 home runs.

Both teams have experienced ups and downs, with the Astros seemingly having an advantage in offensive production. However, the projected win probability by THE BAT X gives the Astros a 63% chance of winning, making them the favorites. The Angels, despite their power, have struggled overall, and their bullpen is ranked as the second-worst in MLB.

With an implied win probability of 65% according to the current moneyline, the Astros are the clear betting favorites. THE BAT X projects them to score an average of 5.40 runs, while the Angels are projected to score 4.34 runs. The game total is set at 8.5 runs.

As the Astros aim to recover from their recent loss against the Angels, they have the advantage of a strong offense and a favorable pitching matchup. However, anything can happen in baseball, and the Angels' power could pose a challenge to Cristian Javier's flyball tendencies. It will be an intriguing game to watch as both teams look to improve their seasons.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Hitters such as Luis Guillorme with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Cristian Javier who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Los Angeles Angels bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Given that groundball batters have a big edge over flyball pitchers, Cristian Javier and his 47.1% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a troublesome spot in this outing squaring off against 1 opposing GB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Yainer Diaz has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (53% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.2% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 44 games (+4.95 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 44 games (+7.20 Units / 14% ROI)
• Zach Neto has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+10.25 Units / 23% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.45 vs Houston Astros 5.46

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