Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs Pick For 5/21/2024

Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves

May 21, 2024

Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 21, 2024
  • Venue: Wrigley Field
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Charlie Morton - Braves
    • Javier Assad - Cubs

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Braves -120, Cubs 100
Runline: Braves -1.5 115, Cubs 1.5 -135
Over/Under Total: 10.5 -105

Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Atlanta Braves - 52% Atlanta Braves - 53.48%
Chicago Cubs - 48% Chicago Cubs - 46.52%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

On May 21, 2024, the Chicago Cubs will take on the Atlanta Braves at Wrigley Field. The Cubs, with a season record of 26-22, are having an above-average season, while the Braves boast an impressive record of 27-17, indicating a great season. This National League matchup is the first game in the series between these two teams.

The Cubs are scheduled to start right-handed pitcher Javier Assad, who has been performing well this season. In his nine starts, Assad has maintained an undefeated 4-0 record with an exceptional 1.49 ERA. However, his 3.94 xFIP suggests that he has been somewhat lucky and may not perform as strongly going forward. On average, Assad is projected to pitch 4.7 innings, allowing 3.1 earned runs, striking out 4.0 batters, and giving up 5.4 hits and 1.5 walks per game.

Opposing Assad on the mound will be right-handed pitcher Charlie Morton of the Braves. Morton has started eight games this season, with a 3-1 win/loss record and a 3.52 ERA. His average projection for today's game includes pitching 5.1 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs, striking out 5.7 batters, and surrendering 5.2 hits and 2.2 walks.

The Cubs offense ranks as the 15th best in MLB this season, with an average batting performance. They are 9th in team batting average, 12th in home runs, and 6th in stolen bases. On the other hand, the Braves have an impressive offense, ranking 7th overall. They lead in team batting average and home runs, and are 7th in stolen bases.

In their last game, the Cubs suffered a close 3-2 loss against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Braves, on the other hand, secured a 3-0 victory over the San Diego Padres. The odds for today's game indicate a close matchup, with the Cubs having a moneyline of +105 and an implied win probability of 47%, while the Braves have a moneyline of -125 and an implied win probability of 53%.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Braves are given a 54% win probability for today's game, while the Cubs have a 46% chance of winning. THE BAT X projects a high-scoring game, with the Cubs expected to score an average of 5.27 runs and the Braves projected to score 6.09 runs.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

When it comes to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Charlie Morton in the 90th percentile among all starters in MLB.

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Matt Olson will probably have the upper hand against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs only has 1 same-handed RP.

  • Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The 4th-best projected batting order of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the Atlanta Braves.

  • A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Seiya Suzuki in the 91st percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Chicago Cubs batters as a unit rank near the bottom of MLB since the start of last season ( 10th-worst) when it comes to their 88.7-mph average exit velocity.

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 46 games (+7.15 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 31 games (+19.35 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 40 games (+16.05 Units / 26% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 6.18 vs Chicago Cubs 5.43

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-124
67% ATL
+106
33% CHC

Total Pick Consensus

11.5/-118
67% UN
11.5/-102
33% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/+114
61% ATL
+1.5/-135
39% CHC

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
ATL
Team Stats
CHC
3.86
ERA
4.22
.240
Batting Avg Against
.243
1.28
WHIP
1.29
.300
BABIP
.289
8.7%
BB%
8.3%
24.5%
K%
22.0%
74.1%
LOB%
71.1%
.275
Batting Avg
.255
.502
SLG
.419
.847
OPS
.751
.345
OBP
.332
ATL
Team Records
CHC
23-13
Home
20-16
17-18
Road
15-23
26-21
vRHP
31-29
14-10
vLHP
4-10
9-10
vs>.500
11-16
31-21
vs<.500
24-23
5-5
Last10
4-6
10-10
Last20
8-12
14-16
Last30
10-20
C. Morton
J. Assad
128.2
Innings
60.2
23
GS
3
11-10
W-L
2-2
3.71
ERA
3.12
9.51
K/9
6.68
4.55
BB/9
3.86
0.91
HR/9
0.89
78.2%
LOB%
81.6%
10.9%
HR/FB%
10.0%
4.17
FIP
4.36
4.37
xFIP
4.69
.248
AVG
.230
23.9%
K%
18.1%
11.4%
BB%
10.5%
4.57
SIERA
4.82

C. Morton

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/3 NYM
Peterson N/A
L4-5 N/A
5.2
6
5
4
3
3
63-99
4/27 CHC
Jr N/A
L3-6 N/A
2.1
4
3
3
1
4
38-70
4/20 LAD
Gonsolin N/A
L1-5 N/A
5.1
6
4
4
4
3
49-95
4/14 SD
Musgrove N/A
L1-12 N/A
5
9
5
5
5
3
58-95
4/8 CIN
Sanmartin N/A
W7-6 N/A
5.1
2
2
2
5
1
51-78

J. Assad

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
ATL CHC
ATL CHC
Consensus
-134
+115
-124
+106
-135
+114
-125
+105
-134
+114
-126
+108
-139
+120
-122
+105
-130
+110
-130
+110
-135
+110
-130
+110
Open
Current
Book
ATL CHC
ATL CHC
Consensus
-1.5 (+111)
+1.5 (-133)
-1.5 (+118)
+1.5 (-143)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-130)
-1.5 (+114)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+108)
+1.5 (-130)
-1.5 (+114)
+1.5 (-137)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-137)
-1.5 (+123)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-130)
-1.5 (+115)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+115)
+1.5 (-140)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
10.5 (+100)
10.5 (-121)
11.5 (-113)
11.5 (-108)
10.5 (-105)
10.5 (-115)
12.0 (-102)
12.0 (-118)
10.5 (+100)
10.5 (-122)
11.5 (-115)
11.5 (-105)
10.0 (-117)
10.0 (-105)
11.5 (-103)
11.5 (-118)
10.5 (-105)
10.5 (-115)
11.5 (-115)
11.5 (-105)
10.5 (+100)
10.5 (-130)
11.5 (-115)
11.5 (-105)