Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees Pick & Prediction – 5/21/2024

Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners

May 21, 2024

New York Yankees

New York Yankees
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 21, 2024
  • Venue: Yankee Stadium
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Bryan Woo - Mariners
    • Clarke Schmidt - Yankees

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Mariners 135, Yankees -160
Runline: Mariners 1.5 -150, Yankees -1.5 130
Over/Under Total: 8 100

Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Seattle Mariners - 41% Seattle Mariners - 41.11%
New York Yankees - 59% New York Yankees - 58.89%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated American League matchup, the Seattle Mariners will face off against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on May 21, 2024. The Yankees, with a season record of 33-16, are having a great season, while the Mariners, with a record of 26-22, are having an above-average season.

The Yankees will be the home team for this game, and they have the advantage of playing in front of their home crowd. The Mariners, on the other hand, will be the away team, looking to secure a victory on the road.

The game will feature a pitching duel between Clarke Schmidt of the Yankees and Bryan Woo of the Mariners. Schmidt, a right-handed pitcher, has been performing well this season, with a record of 5-1 and an excellent ERA of 2.49. However, his peripheral indicator, xFIP, suggests that he may not sustain this level of performance going forward. Woo, also a right-handed pitcher, has a record of 1-0 and an impressive ERA of 0.93. Like Schmidt, his xFIP indicates that he may regress in future performances.

This game is the second in a series between these two teams. In their last game, the Mariners emerged victorious with a score of 5-4. Despite being the underdogs in that game, they managed to secure the win. The Yankees, who were the favorites, suffered a narrow defeat.

The Yankees have been enjoying a strong offensive season, ranking as the second-best offense in MLB. However, their team batting average ranks 29th, indicating room for improvement in that area. They have shown power, ranking eighth in team home runs, but their stolen bases rank 20th in the league. On the other side, the Mariners have a below-average offense, ranking 21st in MLB. Their team batting average ranks 24th, but they have shown some power, ranking 13th in team home runs.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Yankees as the favorites for this game with a win probability of 60%. The Mariners, on the other hand, are projected to have a win probability of 40%.

With the Yankees being the betting favorites, it will be interesting to see if they can bounce back from their previous loss and secure a victory against the Mariners. However, the Mariners have shown that they can compete with the best teams, and they will be looking to continue their above-average season with another win.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Cal Raleigh is an extreme flyball batter and faces the weak outfield defense of New York (#3-worst of all teams today).

  • This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The 9.7% Barrel% of the Seattle Mariners ranks them as the #3 team in baseball since the start of last season by this stat.

  • Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Clarke Schmidt is expected to wring up 5.8 strikeouts in today's outing.

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Anthony Rizzo is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Anthony Rizzo pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.8% — 90th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 26 games (+11.99 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+5.05 Units / 78% ROI)
  • Luke Raley has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.05 Units / 49% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.43 vs New York Yankees 5.03

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+138
10% SEA
-163
90% NYY

Total Pick Consensus

8.0/-115
3% UN
8.0/-105
97% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-155
5% SEA
-1.5/+130
95% NYY

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
SEA
Team Stats
NYY
3.72
ERA
4.06
.233
Batting Avg Against
.231
1.18
WHIP
1.25
.287
BABIP
.276
7.0%
BB%
8.8%
24.6%
K%
23.5%
72.3%
LOB%
73.2%
.237
Batting Avg
.232
.403
SLG
.402
.719
OPS
.709
.315
OBP
.307
SEA
Team Records
NYY
27-12
Home
23-10
17-19
Road
28-14
30-23
vRHP
42-18
14-8
vLHP
9-6
14-17
vs>.500
19-12
30-14
vs<.500
32-12
8-2
Last10
6-4
15-5
Last20
14-6
20-10
Last30
21-9
B. Woo
C. Schmidt
55.0
Innings
117.1
11
GS
24
1-3
W-L
8-7
4.75
ERA
4.76
9.82
K/9
8.67
2.78
BB/9
2.53
1.31
HR/9
1.38
65.2%
LOB%
70.0%
12.5%
HR/FB%
13.0%
4.07
FIP
4.41
4.08
xFIP
4.34
.241
AVG
.268
25.9%
K%
22.0%
7.3%
BB%
6.4%
3.92
SIERA
4.20

B. Woo

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

C. Schmidt

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
9/12 NYM
Carrasco N/A
L6-7 N/A
4.1
7
5
2
2
3
54-90
9/27 MIA
Urena 163
L0-5 10
4
4
3
3
4
2
42-71

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
SEA NYY
SEA NYY
Consensus
+140
-166
+138
-163
+136
-162
+136
-162
+140
-166
+134
-158
+133
-157
+138
-167
+135
-160
+140
-165
+135
-160
+140
-165
Open
Current
Book
SEA NYY
SEA NYY
Consensus
+1.5 (-157)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-157)
-1.5 (+131)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-164)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-164)
-1.5 (+136)
+1.5 (-157)
-1.5 (+135)
+1.5 (-157)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+135)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+135)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+125)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.0 (-114)
8.0 (-108)
8.0 (-121)
8.0 (-102)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
8.0 (-122)
8.0 (+100)
8.0 (-122)
8.0 (+100)
8.0 (-118)
8.0 (-103)
8.0 (-120)
8.0 (-103)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-120)
8.0 (+100)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)