Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction & Picks 5/21/2024

Chicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox

May 21, 2024

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 21, 2024
  • Venue: Rogers Centre
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Garrett Crochet - White Sox
    • Yusei Kikuchi - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Moneyline: White Sox 155, Blue Jays -180
Runline: White Sox 1.5 -145, Blue Jays -1.5 125
Over/Under Total: 7.5 -110

Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Chicago White Sox - 38% Chicago White Sox - 36.36%
Toronto Blue Jays - 62% Toronto Blue Jays - 63.64%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

On May 21st, 2024, the Toronto Blue Jays will face off against the Chicago White Sox at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays, boasting a record of 21-25 this season, are having a below-average campaign. Meanwhile, the White Sox have struggled with a record of 14-34, making it a tough season for them.

Yusei Kikuchi, a left-handed pitcher, is projected to start for the Blue Jays. With a Win/Loss record of 2-3 and an impressive ERA of 2.60 this year, Kikuchi has been performing excellently. However, his 3.14 SIERA suggests that he may have been lucky so far and could see a regression in his performance going forward.

Opposing Kikuchi on the mound will be Garrett Crochet, another left-handed pitcher. Crochet, considered one of the elite starting pitchers in MLB, has started 10 games this season, with a Win/Loss record of 4-4 and an ERA of 4.18. Despite his high ERA, his 2.61 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better in future outings.

This game is the second matchup in a series between the Blue Jays and the White Sox. In their previous game, the Blue Jays emerged victorious with a convincing 9-3 win. They were the clear favorites with a closing Moneyline price of -190, giving them a 63% implied win probability. The White Sox, on the other hand, were big underdogs with a closing Moneyline price of +165 and a 37% implied win probability.

The Blue Jays' offense ranks as the 24th best in MLB this season, while the White Sox offense ranks as the bottom-ranked 30th. However, it's worth noting that the Blue Jays have the 5th highest team batting average in the league, indicating their talent at the plate.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Blue Jays rank 13th, while the White Sox rank 27th according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. This gives the Blue Jays an advantage in the later innings of the game.

With THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projecting a 64% win probability for the Blue Jays and a 36% win probability for the White Sox, the Blue Jays enter the game as strong favorites.

Based on the current odds, the Blue Jays have an average implied team total of 4.25 runs, while the White Sox have a very low implied team total of 3.25 runs. However, THE BAT X projects that the Blue Jays will score an average of 4.69 runs in this game, compared to the White Sox's projection of 3.71 runs.

Considering all these factors, the Blue Jays are expected to dominate in this matchup. However, baseball is a game of uncertainties, and anything can happen on the field. So, sit back, relax, and enjoy the game!

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Garrett Crochet projects to average 14.9 outs in this game, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Paul DeJong in the 3rd percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The Chicago White Sox have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Paul DeJong, Korey Lee, Zach Remillard).

  • Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

The Chicago White Sox have 8 hitters in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage against Yusei Kikuchi in today's game.

  • Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Daulton Varsho has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (61% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card today.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Toronto Blue Jays hitters as a unit rank near the bottom of the league since the start of last season ( 8th-worst) when assessing their 88.6-mph average exit velocity.

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 36 games (+8.50 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Chicago White Sox have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 23 games (+3.80 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Eloy Jimenez has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 27 games (+7.10 Units / 26% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.76 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.73

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.

Subscribe to our newsletter to get our best bets every week!

*By clicking the "Subscribe" button, you agree to receive promotional emails.

Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+163
7% CHW
-193
93% TOR

Total Pick Consensus

7.0/-110
1% UN
7.0/-110
99% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-130
5% CHW
-1.5/+110
95% TOR

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
CHW
Team Stats
TOR
4.60
ERA
3.68
.242
Batting Avg Against
.238
1.38
WHIP
1.24
.295
BABIP
.294
10.2%
BB%
8.0%
24.3%
K%
25.1%
72.5%
LOB%
76.4%
.238
Batting Avg
.260
.386
SLG
.415
.681
OPS
.746
.295
OBP
.331
CHW
Team Records
TOR
13-23
Home
18-18
7-31
Road
17-20
14-43
vRHP
30-29
6-11
vLHP
5-9
11-36
vs>.500
16-22
9-18
vs<.500
19-16
4-6
Last10
5-5
5-15
Last20
11-9
6-24
Last30
16-14
G. Crochet
Y. Kikuchi
10.0
Innings
128.1
0
GS
24
0-1
W-L
9-4
3.60
ERA
3.44
8.10
K/9
9.26
9.90
BB/9
2.45
0.90
HR/9
1.54
82.5%
LOB%
84.2%
7.1%
HR/FB%
15.9%
6.37
FIP
4.35
7.36
xFIP
3.88
.250
AVG
.244
17.3%
K%
24.9%
21.2%
BB%
6.6%
6.69
SIERA
3.92

G. Crochet

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Y. Kikuchi

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/4 NYY
Cortes N/A
W2-1 N/A
6
3
1
1
7
1
54-78
4/29 HOU
Urquidy N/A
L7-11 N/A
2.2
4
4
4
4
3
39-66
4/24 HOU
Garcia N/A
L7-8 N/A
3.2
3
4
2
4
5
44-77
4/19 BOS
Eovaldi N/A
L1-2 N/A
5
3
1
1
3
3
58-91
4/12 NYY
Cortes N/A
L0-4 N/A
3.1
5
3
2
2
2
49-84

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
CHW TOR
CHW TOR
Consensus
+153
-187
+163
-193
+145
-175
+164
-198
+158
-188
+164
-196
+148
-175
+160
-190
+143
-170
+170
-205
+145
-175
+155
-190
Open
Current
Book
CHW TOR
CHW TOR
Consensus
+1.5 (-137)
-1.5 (+145)
+1.5 (-137)
-1.5 (+113)
+1.5 (-130)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-130)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-140)
-1.5 (+116)
+1.5 (-140)
-1.5 (+116)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+123)
+1.5 (-125)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-125)
-1.5 (+105)
+1.5 (-140)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-140)
-1.5 (+115)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
7.5 (+102)
7.5 (-123)
7.0 (-110)
7.0 (-110)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-120)
7.0 (-110)
7.0 (-110)
8.0 (+100)
8.0 (-122)
7.0 (-108)
7.0 (-112)
8.0 (+100)
8.0 (-120)
7.0 (-110)
7.0 (-109)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-120)
7.0 (-105)
7.0 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-115)
7.0 (-105)
7.0 (-115)