Minnesota Twins at Washington Nationals Best Bet – 5/21/2024

Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins

May 21, 2024

Washington Nationals

Washington Nationals
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 21, 2024
  • Venue: Nationals Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Joe Ryan - Twins
    • Patrick Corbin - Nationals

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Twins -185, Nationals 160
Runline: Twins -1.5 -110, Nationals 1.5 -110
Over/Under Total: 8.5 -110

Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Minnesota Twins - 63% Minnesota Twins - 59.45%
Washington Nationals - 37% Washington Nationals - 40.55%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

In an exciting interleague matchup, the Washington Nationals will take on the Minnesota Twins on May 21, 2024, at Nationals Park. The Nationals, with a below-average season record of 21-25, will be looking to continue their winning momentum from their last game against the Twins, which they won convincingly by a score of 12-3.

The Nationals have been led by their standout hitter, CJ Abrams, who has been a consistent contributor to their offense. With 29 runs, 7 home runs, and 8 stolen bases, Abrams has played a crucial role in the Nationals' success this season. However, despite their offensive prowess, the Nationals rank as the 26th best team in MLB this season, indicating a lack of overall performance.

On the mound, the Nationals are projected to start left-handed pitcher Patrick Corbin. Corbin has had a challenging season, with a 1-4 win/loss record and a high ERA of 5.59. However, his 4.40 xFIP suggests that he has been somewhat unlucky and could perform better going forward. Corbin's low-strikeout style will be tested against the Twins, who have the most strikeouts in MLB.

Opposing Corbin will be the Twins' right-handed pitcher, Joe Ryan. Ryan has been impressive this season, with a 2-3 win/loss record and a solid ERA of 3.57. His high strikeout rate of 27.4% poses a challenge to the Nationals' offense, which ranks as the second least strikeout-prone team in MLB.

In terms of team rankings, the Twins have had a more average season, with a record of 24-23. However, their offense has shown strength, ranking 7th in MLB in team home runs. Their bullpen, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, is ranked as the best in MLB.

Considering the projected win probabilities, the Twins enter the game as favorites with an implied win probability of 63%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also favors the Twins with a projected win probability of 62%. The Nationals, with a low implied team total of 3.65 runs, face a challenging task against Joe Ryan's dominant pitching.

With both teams having contrasting strengths and weaknesses, this matchup promises an exciting battle. Can Patrick Corbin overcome his struggles and lead the Nationals to victory? Or will Joe Ryan's dominant performance propel the Twins to another win? Baseball fans and bettors alike will be eagerly watching to find out.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

With 6 hitters of opposing handedness in the opposing team's projected batting order, Joe Ryan has a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.

  • Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Correa in the 88th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Vazquez in the 4th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Eddie Rosario has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (77% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.

  • The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Washington Nationals projected lineup projects as the 3rd-weakest on the slate in terms of overall batting skill.

  • A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 41 games (+7.05 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 25 games (+4.14 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Jesse Winker has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 22 games (+7.35 Units / 33% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 5.19 vs Washington Nationals 4.02

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-181
74% MIN
+152
26% WSH

Total Pick Consensus

8.5/-108
14% UN
8.5/-112
86% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/-105
77% MIN
+1.5/-115
23% WSH

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
MIN
Team Stats
WSH
3.89
ERA
4.88
.235
Batting Avg Against
.265
1.20
WHIP
1.45
.293
BABIP
.300
7.3%
BB%
9.4%
25.8%
K%
19.5%
74.0%
LOB%
72.7%
.237
Batting Avg
.259
.416
SLG
.400
.732
OPS
.719
.316
OBP
.319
MIN
Team Records
WSH
23-14
Home
16-18
18-18
Road
19-19
29-24
vRHP
24-28
12-8
vLHP
11-9
12-21
vs>.500
15-19
29-11
vs<.500
20-18
8-2
Last10
8-2
12-8
Last20
11-9
17-13
Last30
15-15
J. Ryan
P. Corbin
126.0
Innings
137.1
22
GS
24
9-8
W-L
7-11
4.43
ERA
4.85
10.86
K/9
5.96
1.79
BB/9
2.88
1.79
HR/9
1.57
74.3%
LOB%
71.8%
14.5%
HR/FB%
16.7%
4.15
FIP
5.24
3.81
xFIP
4.69
.239
AVG
.289
29.1%
K%
15.0%
4.8%
BB%
7.2%
3.44
SIERA
5.02

J. Ryan

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/3 BAL
Zimmermann N/A
W7-2 N/A
4.2
6
2
2
3
1
57-81
4/27 DET
Pineda N/A
W5-0 N/A
7
1
0
0
9
1
58-90
4/21 KC
Greinke N/A
W1-0 N/A
6
2
0
0
5
1
57-85
4/15 BOS
Pivetta N/A
W8-4 N/A
6
5
1
1
7
0
60-82
4/8 SEA
Ray N/A
L1-2 N/A
4
2
2
2
4
4
42-70

P. Corbin

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/4 COL
Gomber N/A
L2-5 N/A
8
9
5
3
3
0
70-94
4/28 MIA
Rogers N/A
L2-3 N/A
6
4
3
2
8
2
62-90
4/22 SF
Long N/A
L1-7 N/A
1.2
7
7
7
4
3
34-60
4/17 PIT
Quintana N/A
L3-5 N/A
5.1
3
2
2
4
3
54-92
4/12 ATL
Elder N/A
L4-16 N/A
2.2
9
6
6
3
3
50-83

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
MIN WSH
MIN WSH
Consensus
-175
+160
-181
+152
-185
+154
-175
+145
-196
+164
-180
+152
-195
+163
-186
+155
-190
+158
-190
+158
-190
+155
-185
+150
Open
Current
Book
MIN WSH
MIN WSH
Consensus
-1.5 (-109)
+1.5 (-113)
-1.5 (-109)
+1.5 (-113)
-1.5 (-105)
+1.5 (-112)
-1.5 (-105)
+1.5 (-115)
-1.5 (-111)
+1.5 (+100)
-1.5 (-111)
+1.5 (-108)
-1.5 (-110)
+1.5 (-108)
-1.5 (-110)
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (-110)
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (-110)
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (-110)
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (-110)
+1.5 (-110)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.5 (-116)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-111)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-112)
8.5 (-108)
8.5 (-122)
8.5 (+100)
8.5 (-112)
8.5 (-108)
8.5 (-112)
8.5 (-108)
8.5 (-107)
8.5 (-113)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)