Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins Prediction & Picks 5/21/2024

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers

May 21, 2024

Miami Marlins

Miami Marlins
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 21, 2024
  • Venue: LoanDepot Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Robert Gasser - Brewers
    • Trevor Rogers - Marlins

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Brewers -140, Marlins 120
Runline: Brewers -1.5 120, Marlins 1.5 -140
Over/Under Total: 8 -110

Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Milwaukee Brewers - 56% Milwaukee Brewers - 47.8%
Miami Marlins - 44% Miami Marlins - 52.2%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

On May 21, 2024, the Miami Marlins will face off against the Milwaukee Brewers at LoanDepot Park. As the home team, the Marlins will be looking to build on their recent victory against the Brewers. The Marlins, with a record of 16-33 this season, have been struggling, while the Brewers, with a record of 27-20, are having a successful season.

The Marlins are projected to start left-handed pitcher Trevor Rogers, who has had a tough season so far. In his nine starts, Rogers has a win-loss record of 1-6 and an ERA of 5.79. However, his 4.22 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward.

On the other hand, the Brewers are projected to start left-handed pitcher Robert Gasser, who has been performing well this season. Gasser has started two games, with a perfect 2-0 record and an impressive ERA of 0.82. However, his 4.13 xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky and could regress in future outings.

In their last game on May 20, the Marlins emerged victorious against the Brewers with a score of 3-2. Despite being underdogs with a closing Moneyline price of +125, the Marlins defied the odds and came out on top. The Brewers, with a closing Moneyline price of -145, were the favorites but fell short.

The Marlins offense has struggled this season, ranking as the 29th best in MLB. However, they do rank third in team batting average. On the other hand, the Brewers possess the third-best offense in MLB, despite ranking low in team batting average.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Marlins have a win probability of 47% for this game, while the Brewers have a win probability of 53%. The projections suggest a close game between the two teams.

With the Marlins being underdogs, currently with a moneyline of +120, and the Brewers being the favorites with a moneyline of -140, there may be some value in betting on the Marlins given their higher projected win probability.

Overall, this National League matchup promises an intriguing battle between the struggling Marlins and the successful Brewers. Can the Marlins defy the odds once again, or will the Brewers assert their dominance? Only time will tell as these two teams take the field.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The Miami Marlins have 8 batters in the projected batting order that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Robert Gasser in this game, which is especially problematic given his huge platoon split.

  • Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The underlying talent of the Milwaukee Brewers projected lineup today (.312 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount weaker than their .328 wOBA this year.

  • Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Josh Bell is an extreme groundball hitter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Milwaukee (#2-best on the slate today).

  • This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins' bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in the league.

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.55 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 46 games (+7.94 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Jazz Chisholm has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 33 games (+9.75 Units / 21% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.51 vs Miami Marlins 4.48

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-135
70% MIL
+115
30% MIA

Total Pick Consensus

8.0/-108
2% UN
8.0/-112
98% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/+120
95% MIL
+1.5/-142
5% MIA

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
MIL
Team Stats
MIA
4.04
ERA
4.18
.232
Batting Avg Against
.242
1.22
WHIP
1.28
.275
BABIP
.302
8.2%
BB%
8.3%
23.0%
K%
25.2%
73.6%
LOB%
72.5%
.233
Batting Avg
.262
.377
SLG
.402
.689
OPS
.719
.312
OBP
.317
MIL
Team Records
MIA
22-12
Home
13-26
21-18
Road
11-23
34-22
vRHP
21-26
9-8
vLHP
3-23
15-12
vs>.500
8-18
28-18
vs<.500
16-31
6-4
Last10
2-8
12-8
Last20
6-14
17-13
Last30
13-17
R. Gasser
T. Rogers
N/A
Innings
18.0
N/A
GS
4
N/A
W-L
1-2
N/A
ERA
4.00
N/A
K/9
9.50
N/A
BB/9
3.00
N/A
HR/9
1.00
N/A
LOB%
72.1%
N/A
HR/FB%
10.5%
N/A
FIP
4.10
N/A
xFIP
4.39

R. Gasser

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

T. Rogers

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/3 ARI
Castellanos N/A
L4-5 N/A
4.1
6
5
5
4
2
42-78
4/28 WSH
Corbin N/A
W3-2 N/A
6
2
1
1
4
2
58-91
4/22 ATL
Wright N/A
L0-3 N/A
5
4
1
0
4
2
63-95
4/16 PHI
Suarez N/A
L3-10 N/A
1.2
4
7
7
3
4
39-63
4/10 SF
DeSclafani N/A
L2-3 N/A
5
6
3
2
3
1
48-74

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
MIL MIA
MIL MIA
Consensus
-135
+116
-135
+115
-135
+114
-135
+114
-136
+116
-134
+114
-139
+118
-136
+116
-135
+115
-145
+122
-145
+120
-135
+110
Open
Current
Book
MIL MIA
MIL MIA
Consensus
-1.5 (+119)
+1.5 (-141)
-1.5 (+124)
+1.5 (-149)
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-142)
-1.5 (+124)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+114)
+1.5 (-137)
-1.5 (+126)
+1.5 (-152)
-1.5 (+118)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+123)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+118)
+1.5 (-140)
-1.5 (+122)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+135)
+1.5 (-160)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-111)
8.0 (-109)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-112)
8.0 (-108)
8.0 (-114)
8.0 (-106)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)