Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinals Best Bet – 5/21/2024

Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore Orioles

May 21, 2024

St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Baltimore Orioles vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 21, 2024
  • Venue: Busch Stadium
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Kyle Bradish - Orioles
    • Lance Lynn - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Orioles -150, Cardinals 125
Runline: Orioles -1.5 115, Cardinals 1.5 -135
Over/Under Total: 8.5 -110

Baltimore Orioles vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Baltimore Orioles - 57% Baltimore Orioles - 53.23%
St. Louis Cardinals - 43% St. Louis Cardinals - 46.77%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

On May 21, 2024, the St. Louis Cardinals will face off against the Baltimore Orioles at Busch Stadium. This interleague matchup promises an exciting game between two teams with contrasting seasons.

The Cardinals, who currently hold a record of 21-26 this season, are struggling. Their offense ranks as the 23rd best in MLB, but they do excel in team batting average and home runs, ranking 7th and 5th respectively. In their last game, they defeated the Orioles with a score of 6-3. The Cardinals are projected to start right-handed pitcher Lance Lynn, who has an average performance ranking among starting pitchers.

In contrast, the Orioles are having a remarkable season with a record of 29-16. Their offense ranks as the 6th best in MLB, showcasing their talent and consistency. The Orioles will look to bounce back after their loss against the Cardinals in their previous game. They are projected to start right-handed pitcher Kyle Bradish, who has been performing exceptionally well with an ERA of 2.63.

Considering the projected starting pitchers, the Orioles have an advantage on the mound. However, the Cardinals' powerful offense and home-field advantage could make this a closely contested game. According to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, the Orioles have a slight edge with a projected win probability of 53%, while the Cardinals sit at 47%.

Fans can expect an exciting matchup between these two teams, with both sides having their strengths and weaknesses. The Cardinals will rely on their strong batting average and home run-hitting ability, while the Orioles will seek to capitalize on their well-rounded offense and excellent starting pitcher.

Overall, this game promises to be a close and thrilling contest. Will the struggling Cardinals surprise the Orioles with their potent offense, or will the Orioles continue their impressive season? Baseball fans will certainly be in for a treat as these two teams battle it out on the field.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Kyle Bradish (48.5% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 2 FB hitters in St. Louis's projected batting order.

  • This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Baltimore Orioles bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

The Baltimore Orioles have 6 bats in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage over Lance Lynn in this game, which is especially precarious given his large platoon split.

  • Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Extreme groundball hitters like Nolan Arenado generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Kyle Bradish.

  • This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (43.3% — 100th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game's 6th-deepest LF fences today.

  • This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 89% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 31 games (+8.35 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Gunnar Henderson has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 36 games (+8.95 Units / 23% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.69 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.13

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-163
72% BAL
+139
28% STL

Total Pick Consensus

9.0/-108
4% UN
9.0/-112
96% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/-105
94% BAL
+1.5/-115
6% STL

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
BAL
Team Stats
STL
4.12
ERA
4.59
.243
Batting Avg Against
.268
1.28
WHIP
1.43
.299
BABIP
.322
8.3%
BB%
8.3%
23.9%
K%
20.4%
73.2%
LOB%
69.8%
.251
Batting Avg
.259
.420
SLG
.436
.737
OPS
.770
.318
OBP
.333
BAL
Team Records
STL
25-14
Home
17-15
22-11
Road
19-21
33-18
vRHP
24-27
14-7
vLHP
12-9
22-13
vs>.500
9-14
25-12
vs<.500
27-22
7-3
Last10
6-4
13-7
Last20
11-9
19-11
Last30
18-12
K. Bradish
L. Lynn
121.2
Innings
N/A
22
GS
N/A
7-6
W-L
N/A
3.18
ERA
N/A
8.43
K/9
N/A
2.52
BB/9
N/A
0.89
HR/9
N/A
78.6%
LOB%
N/A
11.2%
HR/FB%
N/A
3.66
FIP
N/A
3.82
xFIP
N/A
.229
AVG
N/A
23.0%
K%
N/A
6.9%
BB%
N/A
4.02
SIERA
N/A

K. Bradish

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/4 MIN
Bundy N/A
W9-4 N/A
4
6
4
4
3
2
38-70
4/29 BOS
Hill N/A
L1-3 N/A
6
5
3
2
2
1
52-81

L. Lynn

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
10/7 HOU
Jr N/A
L1-6 N/A
3.2
6
5
5
4
2
46-76
10/1 DET
Peralta N/A
W8-1 N/A
5
4
1
1
4
1
54-81
9/25 CLE
Morgan N/A
L0-6 N/A
6
7
6
6
6
0
70-105
9/18 TEX
Howard N/A
L1-2 N/A
5.1
6
2
1
5
2
53-83
9/12 BOS
Pivetta N/A
W2-1 N/A
5
2
0
0
9
0
47-70

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
BAL STL
BAL STL
Consensus
-150
+130
-163
+139
-148
+124
-166
+140
-152
+128
-162
+136
-150
+128
-157
+133
-145
+122
-175
+148
-150
+125
-165
+140
Open
Current
Book
BAL STL
BAL STL
Consensus
-1.5 (+104)
+1.5 (-125)
-1.5 (-104)
+1.5 (-117)
-1.5 (+114)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (-108)
+1.5 (-112)
-1.5 (+104)
+1.5 (-125)
-1.5 (-104)
+1.5 (-115)
-1.5 (+112)
+1.5 (-137)
-1.5 (+105)
+1.5 (-129)
-1.5 (+115)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (-105)
+1.5 (-115)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (-105)
+1.5 (-115)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.5 (-123)
8.5 (+102)
9.0 (-107)
9.0 (-114)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
9.0 (-112)
9.0 (-108)
9.0 (-110)
9.0 (-110)
9.0 (-110)
9.0 (-110)
8.5 (-109)
8.5 (-110)
9.0 (+100)
9.0 (-122)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
9.0 (-110)
9.0 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
9.0 (-110)
9.0 (-110)