Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction – 5/21/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks

May 21, 2024

Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 21, 2024
  • Venue: Dodger Stadium
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs
    • Gavin Stone - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Moneyline: D-Backs 150, Dodgers -170
Runline: D-Backs 1.5 -140, Dodgers -1.5 120
Over/Under Total: 8.5 -110

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Arizona Diamondbacks - 39% Arizona Diamondbacks - 41.53%
Los Angeles Dodgers - 61% Los Angeles Dodgers - 58.47%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

On May 21, 2024, the Los Angeles Dodgers will face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium. This National League West matchup features the Dodgers, who are having a great season with a record of 33-17, and the D-Backs, who are having a below-average season with a record of 22-26.

The Dodgers are projected to start Gavin Stone, a right-handed pitcher who has been solid this season. Stone has a win/loss record of 4-1 and an ERA of 3.27. However, his 4.48 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky so far and could perform worse going forward. Stone is a low-strikeout pitcher and will face a D-Backs offense that ranks among the teams with the fewest strikeouts in MLB.

On the other side, the D-Backs are projected to start Brandon Pfaadt, an average pitcher with a record of 1-3 and an ERA of 4.17. Pfaadt's 3.61 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and could perform better in future outings. He will face a powerful Dodgers offense that ranks second in MLB in home runs this season.

In their last game on May 20, the Dodgers played the D-Backs and came out with a 6-4 victory. The Dodgers were heavily favored to win the game, with a closing Moneyline price of -245 and an implied win probability of 68%. The D-Backs, on the other hand, were big underdogs with a closing Moneyline price of +205 and an implied win probability of 32%.

The Dodgers have the best offense in MLB this season, ranking first in overall performance. They have been led by the outstanding performance of Shohei Ohtani, who has recorded 37 runs, 33 RBIs, 13 home runs, and 11 stolen bases with a batting average of .353 and an OPS of 1.077. In their last seven games, Ohtani has continued to shine as the team's best hitter.

The D-Backs, meanwhile, have a solid offense that ranks tenth in MLB. Ketel Marte has been their standout player, with 33 runs, 25 RBIs, and 9 home runs. Over the last week, Joc Pederson has been their best hitter, recording a .462 batting average and a 1.077 OPS in four games.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Dodgers are favored to win today's game with a projected win probability of 58%. The D-Backs, on the other hand, have a projected win probability of 42%. The current odds also reflect the Dodgers' favoritism, with a moneyline of -170, implying a 61% win probability, while the D-Backs have a moneyline of +150, implying a 39% win probability.

With the Dodgers' powerful offense and the solid performance of Gavin Stone, they have the advantage going into this game. However, Brandon Pfaadt's ability to limit walks against a patient Dodgers offense could give the D-Backs an opportunity. It will be an exciting matchup between these two teams as they look to secure a victory in the second game of the series.

The Game Total for today's game is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring. As the Dodgers have a high implied team total of 4.77 runs, while the D-Backs have a lower implied team total of 3.73 runs, the projections suggest a higher-scoring game with the Dodgers expected to score an average of 5.23 runs compared to the D-Backs' projection of 4.70 runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Brandon Pfaadt in the 75th percentile when estimating his strikeout talent.

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the 93rd percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Joc Pederson pulls a lot of his flyballs (36% — 91st percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 8th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

  • This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Freddie Freeman will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brandon Pfaadt today... and even more favorably, Pfaadt has a large platoon split.

  • Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The best projected batting order of all teams today in terms of overall batting ability is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

  • A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 28 games (+10.00 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.90 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Enrique Hernandez has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+8.45 Units / 55% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.76 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.36

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.

Subscribe to our newsletter to get our best bets every week!

*By clicking the "Subscribe" button, you agree to receive promotional emails.

Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+140
7% ARI
-166
93% LAD

Total Pick Consensus

8.5/-102
4% UN
8.5/-118
96% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-148
4% ARI
-1.5/+124
96% LAD

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
ARI
Team Stats
LAD
4.66
ERA
4.26
.253
Batting Avg Against
.239
1.35
WHIP
1.24
.300
BABIP
.288
8.6%
BB%
7.8%
21.9%
K%
23.0%
70.1%
LOB%
70.6%
.254
Batting Avg
.252
.420
SLG
.456
.742
OPS
.795
.323
OBP
.339
ARI
Team Records
LAD
19-18
Home
24-15
17-19
Road
22-14
25-23
vRHP
26-22
11-14
vLHP
20-7
9-15
vs>.500
12-4
27-22
vs<.500
34-25
6-4
Last10
6-4
11-9
Last20
13-7
16-14
Last30
17-13
B. Pfaadt
G. Stone
54.2
Innings
12.0
11
GS
3
0-6
W-L
0-0
6.91
ERA
12.75
8.23
K/9
6.00
2.63
BB/9
6.00
2.30
HR/9
0.75
65.7%
LOB%
52.0%
19.7%
HR/FB%
7.7%
5.76
FIP
5.02
4.55
xFIP
5.71
.296
AVG
.444
20.5%
K%
11.3%
6.6%
BB%
11.3%
4.50
SIERA
5.89

B. Pfaadt

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

G. Stone

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
ARI LAD
ARI LAD
Consensus
+143
-169
+140
-166
+142
-170
+136
-162
+142
-168
+138
-164
+140
-165
+148
-175
+143
-170
+140
-165
+145
-175
+135
-165
Open
Current
Book
ARI LAD
ARI LAD
Consensus
+1.5 (-149)
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-149)
-1.5 (+124)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+124)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+124)
+1.5 (-152)
-1.5 (+126)
+1.5 (-152)
-1.5 (+126)
+1.5 (-152)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-152)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+118)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+122)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+125)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.5 (-130)
8.5 (+102)
8.5 (-103)
8.5 (-118)
9.0 (+100)
9.0 (-120)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-122)
8.5 (+100)
8.5 (-102)
8.5 (-120)
9.0 (+100)
9.0 (-121)
8.5 (-103)
8.5 (-118)
9.0 (+100)
9.0 (-120)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
9.0 (+100)
9.0 (-120)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)