Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 30, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cole Ragans - Royals
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays
• Run Line: Royals 1.5 -175, Blue Jays -1.5 155
• Money Line: Royals 120, Blue Jays -140
• Total (Over/Under): 7.5

Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Kansas City Royals - 44%
• Toronto Blue Jays - 56%

Projected Win %:

• Kansas City Royals - 45.78%
• Toronto Blue Jays - 54.22%

Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays Game Preview & Prediction

In an American League matchup scheduled for April 30, 2024, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Kansas City Royals at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays currently hold a record of 15-15 this season, indicating an average performance, while the Royals have been performing well with a record of 17-13.

On the mound for the Blue Jays will be right-handed pitcher Jose Berrios. Berrios has started six games this season, boasting an impressive 4-1 win/loss record and an excellent ERA of 1.23. However, his 4.15 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky so far and could regress in future performances.

Opposing Berrios will be left-handed pitcher Cole Ragans, who has also started six games this season for the Royals. Ragans holds a 1-2 win/loss record with a solid ERA of 3.90. His 3.19 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward.

The Blue Jays offense ranks as the 22nd best in MLB this season, while the Royals offense ranks slightly higher at 21st. However, the Blue Jays have an impressive team batting average, ranking 5th in the league. The Royals, on the other hand, excel in stolen bases, ranking 4th in MLB.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Berrios is considered below average as the 123rd best starting pitcher out of approximately 350 pitchers. Ragans, on the other hand, is ranked as the 18th best starting pitcher. This suggests that the Royals may have an advantage on the mound.

The game total for this matchup is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a low-scoring game. The Blue Jays are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -140, giving them an implied win probability of 56%. The Royals, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +120, with an implied win probability of 44%.

While the Blue Jays have the edge in terms of implied win probability, the Royals have been performing well this season and have a strong starting pitcher in Ragans. It will be interesting to see how these two teams match up in the second game of the series.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Cole Ragans will give up an average of 2.32 earned runs in today's outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Vinnie Pasquantino's footspeed has fallen off this season. His 25.82 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.34 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Kansas City Royals bullpen projects as the 8th-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Jose Berrios's sinker usage has increased by 7% from last year to this one (31.5% to 38.5%) .

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, George Springer has had bad variance on his side this year. His .293 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .427.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 111 games (+11.50 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 58 games (+8.10 Units / 12% ROI)
• Daulton Varsho has only hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 23 games (-0.05 Units / -0% ROI)

Royals vs Blue Jays Prediction: Royals 4.27 - Blue Jays 4.38

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