Atlanta Braves vs Seattle Mariners Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 30, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Reynaldo Lopez - Braves
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners
• Run Line: Braves -1.5 135, Mariners 1.5 -160
• Money Line: Braves -135, Mariners 115
• Total (Over/Under): 7

Atlanta Braves vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Atlanta Braves - 55%
• Seattle Mariners - 45%

Projected Win %:

• Atlanta Braves - 51.03%
• Seattle Mariners - 48.97%

Atlanta Braves vs Seattle Mariners Game Preview & Prediction

On April 30, 2024, the Atlanta Braves will face off against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park in an Interleague matchup. The Mariners, with a season record of 15-13, are having an above-average season, while the Braves boast an impressive 19-7 record, making it a great season for them.

The Mariners will be the home team for this game, and they are projected to start right-handed pitcher Luis Castillo. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Castillo is ranked as the 26th best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers, indicating that he is a great pitcher. He has started six games this year, with a win/loss record of 2-4. Castillo's ERA stands at 4.15, which is above average, but his 2.92 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

On the other side, the Braves will send right-handed pitcher Reynaldo Lopez to the mound. Lopez is ranked as the 58th best starting pitcher in MLB according to our Power Rankings. He has started four games this year, with a perfect 2-0 record and an impressive ERA of 0.72. However, his 3.65 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky and may not perform as well in the future.

In terms of offensive rankings, the Braves have the best offense in MLB this season, ranking first in team batting average and home runs. In contrast, the Mariners have struggled offensively, ranking 25th in MLB overall. However, the Mariners do have a slight edge in stolen bases, ranking 18th compared to the Braves' 7th.

Looking at the betting odds, the Braves are favored to win with a higher implied win probability of 55% compared to the Mariners' 45%. The game total is set at 7.0 runs, indicating a low-scoring game.

Overall, this game showcases a clash between the Braves' dominant offense and the Mariners' struggling offense. Castillo's pitching prowess will be put to the test against the Braves' power-hitting lineup. Meanwhile, Lopez will rely on his high-strikeout ability to challenge the Mariners' strikeout-prone offense. With the Braves favored to win, it will be interesting to see if the Mariners can overcome their offensive struggles and put up a fight against the top team in MLB.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Reynaldo Lopez's fastball spin rate has dropped 166 rpm this year (2023 rpm) below where it was last season (2189 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Seattle's 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Ozzie Albies, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Atlanta Braves bullpen profiles as the 5th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Luis Castillo has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 6.0 more adjusted pitches-per-start than league average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Josh Rojas is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Mitch Garver pulls many of his flyballs (42% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 52 games (+11.13 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 77 of their last 136 games (+13.90 Units / 9% ROI)
• Matt Olson has only hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 17 games (-0.05 Units / -0% ROI)

Braves vs Mariners Prediction: Braves 3.69 - Mariners 3.41

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