St. Louis Cardinals at Detroit Tigers Game 1 Best Bet – 4/30/2024

St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals

Apr 30, 2024

Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

St. Louis Cardinals vs Detroit Tigers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: April 30, 2024
  • Venue: Comerica Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Kyle Gibson - Cardinals
    • Jack Flaherty - Tigers
  • Run Line: Cardinals -1.5 (+170), Tigers +1.5 (-205)
  • Money Line: Cardinals 100, Tigers -120
  • Total (Over/Under): 8.5

St. Louis Cardinals vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

  • St. Louis Cardinals - 48%
  • Detroit Tigers - 52%

Projected Win %:

  • St. Louis Cardinals - 49.43%
  • Detroit Tigers - 50.57%

St. Louis Cardinals vs Detroit Tigers Game Preview & Prediction

The Detroit Tigers are set to host the St. Louis Cardinals in an Interleague matchup on April 30, 2024 at Comerica Park. The Tigers, with a season record of 16-12, are having a good season so far, while the Cardinals are struggling with a below-average record of 13-15.

The Tigers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jack Flaherty, who has had an average performance this season. In his five starts, Flaherty has a win/loss record of 0-1 with an ERA of 4.91. However, his 2.71 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Flaherty is expected to pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs and striking out 5.5 batters. He has been prone to giving up hits and walks, with projections of 5.0 hits and 2.2 walks on average for this game.

On the other side, the Cardinals will rely on right-handed pitcher Kyle Gibson. Gibson has started five games this season with a record of 2-2 and an ERA of 4.35, which is considered average. However, his 6.02 xERA indicates that he has been lucky and may perform worse going forward. Gibson is projected to pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs and striking out 4.3 batters. He has also struggled with hits and walks, with projections of 5.7 hits and 1.8 walks on average for this game.

In terms of offense, the Tigers rank poorly in MLB this season, currently sitting at 26th out of 30 teams. They have a weak batting average and a lack of power, ranking 27th in both categories. On the other hand, the Cardinals have a stronger offense, ranking 27th overall but with a better batting average and ranking 5th in home runs.

Both teams have contrasting bullpens, with the Tigers ranking 16th and the Cardinals ranking first in MLB. The Cardinals' bullpen is considered the best, which could play a crucial role in the game.

According to the current odds, the Tigers have a higher implied win probability of 53% compared to the Cardinals' 47%. However, THE BAT X projects this as a close game, giving both teams a 50% win probability.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

St. Louis enters this game in last place in the NL Central, with their -23 run differential ranking in the bottom-three in the National League this season.

The Cardinals are 8-8 on the road this season, which is slightly better than their 5-7 home mark in the opening portion of the 2024 season.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

The Detroit Tigers infield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst among every team today.

  • Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

It may be wise to expect positive regression for the Detroit Tigers offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in the game this year.

  • When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Cardinals vs Tigers Prediction: Cardinals 4.48 - Tigers 4.31

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+104
18% STL
-124
82% DET

Total Pick Consensus

8.5/-102
30% UN
8.5/-118
70% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-198
27% STL
-1.5/+164
73% DET

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
STL
Team Stats
DET
4.59
ERA
4.46
.268
Batting Avg Against
.244
1.43
WHIP
1.27
.322
BABIP
.289
8.3%
BB%
7.6%
20.4%
K%
22.2%
69.8%
LOB%
68.5%
.259
Batting Avg
.234
.436
SLG
.374
.770
OPS
.673
.333
OBP
.299
STL
Team Records
DET
17-15
Home
16-19
19-20
Road
18-19
24-26
vRHP
26-30
12-9
vLHP
8-8
9-14
vs>.500
12-18
27-21
vs<.500
22-20
7-3
Last10
3-7
11-9
Last20
9-11
19-11
Last30
13-17
K. Gibson
J. Flaherty
N/A
Innings
N/A
N/A
GS
N/A
N/A
W-L
N/A
N/A
ERA
N/A
N/A
K/9
N/A
N/A
BB/9
N/A
N/A
HR/9
N/A
N/A
LOB%
N/A
N/A
HR/FB%
N/A
N/A
FIP
N/A
N/A
xFIP
N/A

K. Gibson

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
4/30 NYM
Walker N/A
W4-1 N/A
4.1
2
1
0
3
5
47-84
4/25 COL
Freeland N/A
W8-2 N/A
5.2
3
2
2
4
2
59-94
4/19 COL
Freeland N/A
L5-6 N/A
6
6
3
3
3
2
56-90
4/14 MIA
Alcantara N/A
L3-4 N/A
4.2
5
4
4
6
3
56-91
4/9 OAK
Irvin N/A
W4-2 N/A
7
2
0
0
10
0
57-82

J. Flaherty

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
9/24 CHC
Davies N/A
W12-4 N/A
0.1
2
2
2
1
1
10-19
8/24 DET
Mize N/A
L3-4 N/A
2
4
4
4
1
3
25-46
8/18 MIL
Peralta N/A
L4-6 N/A
6
4
2
2
8
1
56-92
8/13 KC
Minor N/A
W6-0 N/A
6
2
0
0
5
0
52-81
5/31 LAD
Bauer N/A
L4-9 N/A
5
2
2
2
9
1
50-83

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
STL DET
STL DET
Consensus
-103
-116
+104
-124
+102
-122
+105
-125
+100
-118
+106
-124
-103
-115
+104
-121
+100
-120
+105
-125
+100
-120
+105
-125
+100
-120
+105
-125
Open
Current
Book
STL DET
STL DET
Consensus
-1.5 (+160)
+1.5 (-210)
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-198)
+1.5 (-198)
-1.5 (+164)
+1.5 (-198)
-1.5 (+164)
-1.5 (+158)
+1.5 (-192)
-1.5 (+172)
+1.5 (-210)
-1.5 (+160)
+1.5 (-210)
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-195)
+1.5 (-195)
-1.5 (+170)
+1.5 (-195)
-1.5 (+162)
+1.5 (-200)
-1.5 (+165)
+1.5 (-200)
-1.5 (+165)
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+165)
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+155)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.0 (-113)
8.0 (-107)
8.5 (-122)
8.5 (-101)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.5 (-118)
8.5 (-102)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (-102)
8.0 (-113)
8.0 (-107)
8.5 (-122)
8.5 (+100)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
9.0 (+100)
9.0 (-120)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (+100)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (+100)