Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants Prediction For 6/10/2024

Houston Astros

Houston Astros

Jun 10, 2024

San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants Details

  • Date: June 10, 2024
  • Venue: Oracle Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Spencer Arrighetti - Astros
    • Kyle Harrison - Giants

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Astros -115, Giants -105
Runline: Astros -1.5 150, Giants 1.5 -170
Over/Under Total: 8 -110

Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Houston Astros - 51% Houston Astros - 48.17%
San Francisco Giants - 49% San Francisco Giants - 51.83%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

The San Francisco Giants and the Houston Astros square off in an interleague clash on June 10, 2024, at Oracle Park. Despite both teams having subpar seasons, this matchup presents unique narratives and potential betting opportunities.

The Giants come into this game with a 32-33 record, indicating an average season, while the Astros lag slightly behind at 30-35, marking a below-average year. For the Giants, left-hander Kyle Harrison will be on the mound. According to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Harrison ranks as the 174th-best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting a struggle this season. The Astros counter with right-hander Spencer Arrighetti, who is considered one of the worst starting pitchers in the league.

Offensively, the Giants boast the 8th-best team batting average this season, but their power numbers and speed metrics are less impressive, ranking 20th in home runs and dead last in stolen bases. The Giants' best hitter over the last week has been Heliot Ramos, who is red-hot with a .500 batting average and a 1.712 OPS over his last 6 games.

Meanwhile, the Astros' offense is among the league's elite, ranking 2nd in team batting average and 4th in home runs. Their middle-of-the-pack ranking in stolen bases reflects a balanced approach. Over the last week, Yordan Alvarez has been the standout with a .417 batting average and a 1.315 OPS in his last 6 games.

Betting markets favor the Astros slightly, with a moneyline set at -125 and an implied win probability of 53%. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Giants a 52% win probability, suggesting potential value in betting on San Francisco. Both teams have implied team totals hovering around 4 runs, indicating a closely contested game, with the total set at 8.0 runs.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Houston has performed as the #2 offense in the game when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (17.1% rate since the start of last season).

  • Balls that are hit too low can't clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don't go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

The San Francisco Giants bullpen profiles as the best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

  • The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 45 games (+8.45 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 49 games (+13.40 Units / 25% ROI)

Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 4.53 vs San Francisco Giants 4.47

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-117
57% HOU
-102
43% SF

Total Pick Consensus

8.0/-102
10% UN
8.0/-118
90% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/+140
60% HOU
+1.5/-166
40% SF

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
HOU
Team Stats
SF
3.79
ERA
3.89
.237
Batting Avg Against
.247
1.26
WHIP
1.24
.289
BABIP
.302
8.7%
BB%
6.8%
24.0%
K%
23.1%
75.3%
LOB%
72.1%
.251
Batting Avg
.238
.417
SLG
.389
.740
OPS
.703
.324
OBP
.314
HOU
Team Records
SF
17-18
Home
19-15
14-20
Road
15-20
24-24
vRHP
26-23
7-14
vLHP
8-12
8-21
vs>.500
8-18
23-17
vs<.500
26-17
5-5
Last10
5-5
9-11
Last20
11-9
17-13
Last30
17-13
S. Arrighetti
K. Harrison
N/A
Innings
N/A
N/A
GS
N/A
N/A
W-L
N/A
N/A
ERA
N/A
N/A
K/9
N/A
N/A
BB/9
N/A
N/A
HR/9
N/A
N/A
LOB%
N/A
N/A
HR/FB%
N/A
N/A
FIP
N/A
N/A
xFIP
N/A

S. Arrighetti

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

K. Harrison

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
HOU SF
HOU SF
Consensus
-122
+105
-117
-102
-120
+100
-118
-102
-120
+102
-116
-102
-121
+102
-118
+100
-125
+105
-115
-105
-120
+100
-120
+100
Open
Current
Book
HOU SF
HOU SF
Consensus
+1.5 (141)
-1.5 (+100)
-1.5 (+141)
+1.5 (-170)
-1.5 (+145)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-166)
-1.5 (+138)
+1.5 (-166)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-170)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-177)
-1.5 (+143)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+143)
+1.5 (-170)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-165)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-165)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-165)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-118)
8.0 (-103)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-118)
8.0 (-102)
8.0 (-122)
8.0 (+100)
8.0 (-118)
8.0 (-104)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-117)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-125)
8.0 (+105)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)