Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays Best Bet – 6/10/2024

Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore Orioles

Jun 10, 2024

Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Details

  • Date: June 10, 2024
  • Venue: Tropicana Field
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Albert Suarez - Orioles
    • Ryan Pepiot - Rays

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Orioles -150, Rays 130
Runline: Orioles -1.5 115, Rays 1.5 -135
Over/Under Total: 7.5 100

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Baltimore Orioles - 58% Baltimore Orioles - 53.78%
Tampa Bay Rays - 42% Tampa Bay Rays - 46.22%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are set to host the Baltimore Orioles on June 10, 2024, at Tropicana Field in an American League East showdown. The Rays, with a 31-33 record, are struggling this season, contrasting sharply with the Orioles, who are flying high with a 41-22 record. This game marks the fourth in the series between these division rivals.

The pitching matchup features Tampa Bay's Ryan Pepiot, ranked as the 38th best starting pitcher in MLB, against Baltimore's Albert Suarez. Both right-handers will look to set the tone early. Pepiot's solid performance on the mound could be crucial for the Rays, who are underdogs with a moneyline of +135 and an implied win probability of 41%. Interestingly, the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, gives the Rays a slightly better chance with a 46% win probability, suggesting there might be value in betting on Tampa Bay.

Offensively, the Rays have been inconsistent. They rank 18th in team batting average but dead last in home runs this season, although they are 6th in stolen bases. Their best hitter over the last week, Randy Arozarena, has been on fire, posting a .357 batting average and a 1.071 OPS over his last five games. This spark might be what the Rays need to overcome their offensive woes.

On the other side, the Orioles boast the 8th best team batting average and lead MLB in home runs. Ramon Urias has been scorching hot, batting .444 with a 1.545 OPS in his last five games. Baltimore's power at the plate is a significant advantage, particularly against a Rays team that has struggled to keep pace offensively.

The game total is set at 7.5 runs, reflecting a potentially low-scoring affair. The Rays are projected to score 3.68 runs, while the Orioles are expected to put up 4.23 runs. With Baltimore favored at -155 and an implied win probability of 59%, the projections still suggest a closer game than the betting market indicates.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

The Baltimore Orioles have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse the rest of the season

  • When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Tampa Bay Rays bats collectively rank among the best in MLB since the start of last season (5th-) in regard to their 89.4-mph average exit velocity.

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 47 games (+17.45 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 34 of their last 56 games (+17.45 Units / 26% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.23 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.68

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-139
78% BAL
+119
22% TB

Total Pick Consensus

7.0/-115
13% UN
7.0/-105
87% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/+120
90% BAL
+1.5/-142
10% TB

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
BAL
Team Stats
TB
4.12
ERA
3.88
.243
Batting Avg Against
.230
1.28
WHIP
1.20
.299
BABIP
.282
8.3%
BB%
7.7%
23.9%
K%
24.0%
73.2%
LOB%
73.2%
.251
Batting Avg
.256
.420
SLG
.443
.737
OPS
.770
.318
OBP
.327
BAL
Team Records
TB
22-12
Home
18-22
22-10
Road
14-13
30-17
vRHP
21-29
14-5
vLHP
11-6
14-6
vs>.500
5-14
30-16
vs<.500
27-21
7-3
Last10
4-6
15-5
Last20
7-13
20-10
Last30
13-17
C. Burnes
R. Pepiot
N/A
Innings
N/A
N/A
GS
N/A
N/A
W-L
N/A
N/A
ERA
N/A
N/A
K/9
N/A
N/A
BB/9
N/A
N/A
HR/9
N/A
N/A
LOB%
N/A
N/A
HR/FB%
N/A
N/A
FIP
N/A
N/A
xFIP
N/A

C. Burnes

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/1 CHC
Stroman N/A
L0-2 N/A
7
4
2
2
10
1
67-97
4/25 SF
Long N/A
L2-4 N/A
6.2
2
0
0
11
2
69-106
4/19 PIT
Brubaker N/A
W5-2 N/A
7
4
2
2
10
0
73-107
4/13 BAL
Means N/A
W4-2 N/A
7
3
0
0
8
1
59-97
4/7 CHC
Hendricks N/A
L4-5 N/A
5
4
3
3
4
3
48-83

R. Pepiot

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
BAL TB
BAL TB
Consensus
-153
+133
-139
+119
-155
+130
-135
+114
-172
+144
-138
+118
-157
+135
-139
+120
-155
+130
-150
+126
-155
+125
-145
+120
Open
Current
Book
BAL TB
BAL TB
Consensus
-1.5 (+109)
+1.5 (-130)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+114)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+124)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+100)
+1.5 (-120)
-1.5 (+118)
+1.5 (-142)
-1.5 (+108)
+1.5 (-134)
-1.5 (+128)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-130)
-1.5 (+115)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-145)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-120)
7.0 (-107)
7.0 (-113)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-120)
7.0 (-105)
7.0 (-115)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.0 (-108)
7.0 (-112)
7.5 (-104)
7.5 (-118)
7.0 (-110)
7.0 (-109)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-120)
7.0 (-110)
7.0 (-110)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-115)
7.0 (-105)
7.0 (-115)