Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 1, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dakota Hudson - Rockies
  • Roddery Munoz - Marlins
• Run Line: Rockies 1.5 -165, Marlins -1.5 145
• Money Line: Rockies 125, Marlins -145
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5

Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Colorado Rockies - 43%
• Miami Marlins - 57%

Projected Win %:

• Colorado Rockies - 44.2%
• Miami Marlins - 55.8%

Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins Game Preview & Prediction

On May 1, 2024, the Miami Marlins will face off against the Colorado Rockies at LoanDepot Park. This National League matchup features two struggling teams, with the Marlins carrying a record of 7-24 and the Rockies standing at 7-22 this season.

The Marlins, playing at home, hope to build on their recent victory against the Rockies in a tight 7-6 game. Their offense, which ranks as the 30th best in MLB, has shown some signs of life. Jazz Chisholm has been their standout hitter this season, leading the team with 17 RBIs and 4 home runs. In their last 7 games, Vidal Brujan has emerged as a key contributor with a batting average of 0.529 and an impressive 1.320 OPS.

Roddery Munoz, a right-handed pitcher, is projected to start for the Marlins. Munoz has started only one game this season, but his performance has been promising with an ERA of 3.60. Although his xFIP suggests he has been unlucky, his high-strikeout ability (38.9 K%) may give him an advantage against the strikeout-prone Rockies offense.

The Rockies, the away team, aim to bounce back after their close loss to the Marlins. Ryan McMahon has been their top hitter this season with 18 RBIs, 4 home runs, and an impressive .321 batting average and .892 OPS. However, the Rockies offense struggles with strikeouts, ranking third in the league in strikeouts.

Dakota Hudson, a right-handed pitcher, is projected to start for the Rockies but has struggled this season with an ERA of 6.57. Despite his high groundball rate (55 GB%), the Marlins' lack of power (ranking third-to-last in home runs) might help them against Hudson, who has control issues with a high walk rate (12.9 BB%).

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Marlins are favored to win this game with a projected win probability of 56%. The Marlins have a higher implied team total of 4.58 runs compared to the Rockies' average implied team total of 3.92 runs.

Though both teams have had a rough season, the Marlins appear to have the edge with a home-field advantage, a promising pitcher in Munoz, and improved offensive contributions. However, in baseball, anything can happen, and the Rockies will look to turn the tide in this National League matchup.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Considering that flyball pitchers hold a big advantage over flyball hitters, Dakota Hudson and his 50.6% underlying FB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a good position in this outing going up against 2 opposing FB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Today’s version of the Rockies projected batting order is weaker than usual, as their .294 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .313 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Roddery Munoz will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against 6 opposing batters in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. has big-time power (94th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (28.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Dakota Hudson has a pitch-to-contact profile (20th percentile K%) — great news for Chisholm Jr..

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins' bullpen projects as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+6.50 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 36 away games (+10.46 Units / 28% ROI)
• Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+14.55 Units / 43% ROI)

Rockies vs Marlins Prediction: Rockies 4.3 - Marlins 4.59

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