Atlanta Braves vs Seattle Mariners Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 1, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Sale - Braves
  • Emerson Hancock - Mariners
• Run Line: Braves -1.5 100, Mariners 1.5 -120
• Money Line: Braves -170, Mariners 150
• Total (Over/Under): 7.5

Atlanta Braves vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Atlanta Braves - 61%
• Seattle Mariners - 39%

Projected Win %:

• Atlanta Braves - 56.68%
• Seattle Mariners - 43.32%

Atlanta Braves vs Seattle Mariners Game Preview & Prediction

On May 1, 2024, the Seattle Mariners will host the Atlanta Braves at T-Mobile Park for an Interleague matchup. The Mariners, with a record of 17-13, are having a good season, while the Braves boast an impressive 19-9 record, making it a great season for them. This game marks the third in the series between these two teams.

The Mariners will have Emerson Hancock on the mound, a right-handed pitcher projected to start. Hancock has started five games this season, with a win/loss record of 3-2. Although his ERA sits at 5.06, his 4.35 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Hancock is ranked as the #222 best starting pitcher in MLB.

Opposing Hancock will be Chris Sale, a left-handed pitcher for the Braves. Sale has started five games this season, with a win/loss record of 3-1 and an ERA of 3.69. His 3.06 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky as well and is expected to improve. Sale is regarded as one of the elite pitchers in MLB, ranking #11 in our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

In terms of team performance, the Mariners offense ranks as the #25 best in MLB, while the Braves offense is ranked #2. The Mariners have an average team batting average (#24) and rank #13 in team home runs. The Braves, on the other hand, lead in team batting average and home runs (#1 in both categories).

Considering the projections, Hancock is expected to pitch around 5.0 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs. He is projected to strike out 4.0 batters and allow 4.7 hits and 1.5 walks. Sale, on the other hand, is projected to pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing an average of 2.1 earned runs. He is expected to strike out 7.3 batters but allow 4.1 hits and 2.1 walks.

Looking at the odds, the Mariners are considered big underdogs with a current moneyline of +150, implying a win probability of 39%. The Braves, as the betting favorites, have a moneyline of -175 and an implied win probability of 61%. Based on the current odds, the Mariners have a low implied team total of 3.28 runs, while the Braves have an average implied team total of 4.22 runs.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Chris Sale's slider usage has risen by 6.9% from last season to this one (37.6% to 44.5%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Marcell Ozuna's 16.5% Barrel% (a reliable stat to measure power) ranks in the 98th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves' bullpen projects as the 4th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Emerson Hancock's 2388-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 78th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Luis Urias's quickness has decreased this season. His 26.03 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 25.27 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Mitch Garver pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.2% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 53 games (+11.16 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 63 of their last 108 games (+13.20 Units / 11% ROI)
• Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+12.20 Units / 60% ROI)

Braves vs Mariners Prediction: Braves 4.53 - Mariners 3.71

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.