Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 1, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Seth Lugo - Royals
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays
• Run Line: Royals 1.5 -185, Blue Jays -1.5 160
• Money Line: Royals 110, Blue Jays -130
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5

Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Kansas City Royals - 46%
• Toronto Blue Jays - 54%

Projected Win %:

• Kansas City Royals - 41.37%
• Toronto Blue Jays - 58.63%

Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays Game Preview & Prediction

On May 1, 2024, the Toronto Blue Jays will face off against the Kansas City Royals at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays will be playing as the home team in this American League matchup.

The Blue Jays are projected to start right-handed pitcher Chris Bassitt, who has started six games this year. Bassitt's performance has been below par, with a win/loss record of 2-4 and an ERA of 5.64. However, his 4.42 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward.

On the mound for the Royals will be right-handed pitcher Seth Lugo. Lugo has started six games this season and has an impressive record of 4-1 with an ERA of 1.66. However, his 4.50 xFIP indicates that he may have been fortunate and could regress in future outings.

In terms of offensive rankings, the Blue Jays have the 19th best offense in MLB, with an average team batting average and a below-average ranking in home runs and stolen bases. On the other hand, the Royals have the 20th best offense, with an average team batting average and a strong ranking in stolen bases but a very poor ranking in home runs.

In terms of team totals, the Blue Jays are the betting favorite with a moneyline of -140, implying a win probability of 56%. The Royals are the underdog with a moneyline of +115 and an implied win probability of 44%.

Considering the pitching matchup and the offensive rankings, the Blue Jays have an edge in this game. However, baseball can be unpredictable, and anything can happen on any given day. Let's see how these two teams fare in this exciting matchup.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Seth Lugo's 91.6-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 1.2-mph drop off from last year's 92.8-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

As it relates to his batting average, Vinnie Pasquantino has been unlucky since the start of last season. His .235 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .297.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Kansas City Royals' bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Chris Bassitt has been granted an above-average leash this year, throwing an additional 8.9 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Since the start of last season, Isiah Kiner-Falefa's 3.1% Barrel%, a reliable standard for measuring power, places him in the 8th percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 72 of their last 130 games (+9.09 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 27 games (+9.60 Units / 34% ROI)
• Justin Turner has only hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 12 games (-0.10 Units / -1% ROI)

Royals vs Blue Jays Prediction: Royals 4.27 - Blue Jays 4.84

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