St. Louis Cardinals vs Detroit Tigers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 1, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals
  • Kenta Maeda - Tigers
• Run Line: Cardinals 1.5 -215, Tigers -1.5 185
• Money Line: Cardinals -110, Tigers -110
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5

St. Louis Cardinals vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• St. Louis Cardinals - 50%
• Detroit Tigers - 50%

Projected Win %:

• St. Louis Cardinals - 50.6%
• Detroit Tigers - 49.4%

St. Louis Cardinals vs Detroit Tigers Game Preview & Prediction

The Detroit Tigers are set to take on the St. Louis Cardinals in an Interleague matchup on May 1, 2024, at Comerica Park. The Tigers, with a season record of 17-13, are having a good season so far, while the Cardinals, with a record of 14-16, are experiencing a below-average season.

On the mound, the Tigers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Kenta Maeda, who has started five games this year. Despite having a record of 0-1 and an ERA of 5.96, Maeda's 4.67 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. On average, Maeda is projected to pitch 5.1 innings, allow 2.5 earned runs, strike out 4.6 batters, and allow 4.7 hits and 1.7 walks per game.

Opposing Maeda is right-handed pitcher Miles Mikolas, who has started six games this season. Mikolas has a record of 2-3 and an ERA of 5.91. However, his 3.95 xFIP indicates that he has also been unlucky and could improve in future outings. Mikolas is projected to pitch 5.6 innings on average, allow 3.0 earned runs, strike out 4.1 batters, and allow 6.1 hits and 1.3 walks per game.

The Tigers' offense ranks as the 26th best in MLB this season, with a low team batting average and a lack of home runs and stolen bases. In contrast, the Cardinals' offense ranks 27th overall, but boasts a higher team batting average and ranks 5th in home runs.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Tigers' bullpen ranks 16th best in MLB, while the Cardinals' bullpen is considered the best in the league according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

Considering the current odds, both teams have an equal implied win probability of 50%, indicating that this should be a close game. The Tigers have an average implied team total of 4.25 runs, while the Cardinals' average implied team total is also 4.25 runs.

With factors such as the Tigers' solid season performance, Maeda's potential for improvement, and the Cardinals' struggles, this game presents an opportunity for the Tigers to capitalize. However, the Cardinals' strong bullpen and offensive capabilities cannot be overlooked, making this matchup an intriguing one to watch.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Miles Mikolas has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, recording 5.7 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Nolan Gorman's footspeed has dropped off this season. His 26.5 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.45 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals' bullpen grades out as the best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Kenta Maeda's higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (72.5% compared to 65.8% last season) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

In terms of his home runs, Spencer Torkelson has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His 23.0 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a good deal lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 34.1.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Spencer Torkelson pulls many of his flyballs (35.7% — 90th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 5th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 98 games (+10.20 Units / 9% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 37 away games (+9.10 Units / 23% ROI)
• Kenta Maeda has hit the Earned Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+1.00 Units / 17% ROI)

Cardinals vs Tigers Prediction: Cardinals 4.92 - Tigers 4.62

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