Chicago White Sox at Miami Marlins Prediction For 7/7/2024

Chicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox

Jul 7, 2024

Miami Marlins

Miami Marlins
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Chicago White Sox vs Miami Marlins Details

  • Date: July 7, 2024
  • Venue: LoanDepot Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Jonathan Cannon - White Sox
    • Edward Cabrera - Marlins

Betting Odds

Moneyline: White Sox 120, Marlins -140
Runline: White Sox 1.5 -175, Marlins -1.5 150
Over/Under Total: 8 -110

Chicago White Sox vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Chicago White Sox - 44% Chicago White Sox - 35.48%
Miami Marlins - 56% Miami Marlins - 64.52%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins and Chicago White Sox, two struggling teams, face off on July 7, 2024, at LoanDepot Park. This interleague matchup is the third game in their series, with both teams looking to salvage some pride in a difficult season. The Marlins hold a 31-58 record, while the White Sox are at 26-65, making this a battle between two of the worst teams in MLB this year.

The Marlins are slated to start Edward Cabrera, a right-hander who ranks as the 71st best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X. Despite his high 7.17 ERA, his 3.51 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky and could perform better moving forward. Cabrera's high-groundball rate (51 GB%) might play well against a White Sox offense that ranks 26th in home runs and struggles to generate power.

On the other side, the White Sox will send Jonathan Cannon to the mound. Cannon, also a right-hander, has a 4.62 ERA this season, which is average, but his 3.80 xFIP indicates some bad luck as well. He has struggled with allowing hits and earned runs, projecting to give up 3.0 earned runs and 5.9 hits on average today. However, his low-walk rate (4.2 BB%) could be advantageous against a Marlins offense that ranks last in MLB in walks.

Offensively, both teams have been abysmal. The Marlins rank 30th in overall offense, 23rd in batting average, and 30th in home runs. Their best hitter over the last week has been Jesus Sanchez, who has posted a .389 batting average and a 1.278 OPS over his last six games. Meanwhile, the White Sox offense isn't much better, ranking 29th overall and 28th in batting average. Lenyn Sosa has been a bright spot for Chicago, hitting .407 with a 1.037 OPS in his last six games.

The Marlins' bullpen ranks 16th according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, whereas the White Sox bullpen is near the bottom at 29th. This could be a deciding factor late in the game, especially with the Marlins being favored with a moneyline of -140, translating to a 56% implied win probability.

Overall, while both teams have had disappointing seasons, the Marlins appear to have a slight edge in this matchup, thanks to Cabrera's potential for better performance and a more reliable bullpen.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

The Chicago White Sox outfield defense profiles as the worst out of every team playing today.

  • Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Nicky Lopez has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.7-mph dropping to 80.9-mph in the past week.

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Tommy Pham hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Generating 12.8 outs per outing this year on average, Edward Cabrera checks in at the 13th percentile.

  • A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Nick Fortes's true offensive talent to be a .271, suggesting that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .073 disparity between that figure and his actual .198 wOBA.

  • Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

The Miami Marlins have been the unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better going forward

  • When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 53 of their last 88 games (+12.95 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 away games (+7.00 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 32 games (+8.80 Units / 18% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.84 vs Miami Marlins 4.97

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+128
24% CHW
-149
76% MIA

Total Pick Consensus

7.5/-112
19% UN
7.5/-108
81% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-170
32% CHW
-1.5/+142
68% MIA

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
CHW
Team Stats
MIA
4.60
ERA
4.18
.242
Batting Avg Against
.242
1.38
WHIP
1.28
.295
BABIP
.302
10.2%
BB%
8.3%
24.3%
K%
25.2%
72.5%
LOB%
72.5%
.238
Batting Avg
.262
.386
SLG
.402
.681
OPS
.719
.295
OBP
.317
CHW
Team Records
MIA
17-34
Home
20-33
10-41
Road
15-32
20-61
vRHP
28-36
7-14
vLHP
7-29
20-55
vs>.500
22-43
7-20
vs<.500
13-22
1-9
Last10
3-7
6-14
Last20
7-13
8-22
Last30
12-18
J. Cannon
E. Cabrera
N/A
Innings
77.0
N/A
GS
17
N/A
W-L
5-6
N/A
ERA
4.79
N/A
K/9
10.87
N/A
BB/9
6.08
N/A
HR/9
1.17
N/A
LOB%
73.5%
N/A
HR/FB%
16.7%
N/A
FIP
4.68
N/A
xFIP
4.27

J. Cannon

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

E. Cabrera

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
9/30 NYM
Hill N/A
L3-12 N/A
3
2
2
2
6
2
30-56
9/24 TB
Robertson N/A
L0-8 N/A
3
2
3
3
6
4
45-76
9/18 PIT
Wilson N/A
L3-6 N/A
4
5
3
0
7
3
48-79
9/12 ATL
Fried N/A
L3-5 N/A
3.2
3
2
2
4
3
44-75
9/7 NYM
Carrasco N/A
L4-9 N/A
2.1
1
4
4
1
4
31-65

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
CHW MIA
CHW MIA
Consensus
+107
-125
+128
-149
+105
-125
+124
-148
+122
-144
+126
-148
+120
-141
+130
-152
+118
-140
+122
-145
+110
-135
+125
-150
Open
Current
Book
CHW MIA
CHW MIA
Consensus
+1.5 (-173)
-1.5 (+157)
+1.5 (-173)
-1.5 (+145)
+1.5 (-170)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-170)
-1.5 (+142)
+1.5 (-176)
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-176)
-1.5 (+146)
+1.5 (-182)
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-182)
-1.5 (+148)
+1.5 (-170)
-1.5 (+143)
+1.5 (-170)
-1.5 (+143)
+1.5 (-165)
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-165)
-1.5 (+140)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
7.5 (-108)
7.5 (-112)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
7.5 (-108)
7.5 (-112)
7.5 (-122)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-108)
7.5 (-112)
8.0 (-104)
8.0 (-117)
7.5 (-107)
7.5 (-114)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)