Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction & Odds – 7/7/2024

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers

Jul 7, 2024

Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers Details

  • Date: July 7, 2024
  • Venue: Dodger Stadium
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Dallas Keuchel - Brewers
    • Undecided - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Brewers 135, Dodgers -160
Runline: Brewers 1.5 -140, Dodgers -1.5 120
Over/Under Total: 9.5 -110

Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Milwaukee Brewers - 41% Milwaukee Brewers - 38.35%
Los Angeles Dodgers - 59% Los Angeles Dodgers - 61.65%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Dodgers and the Milwaukee Brewers are set to clash on July 7, 2024, in what promises to be an exciting National League matchup at Dodger Stadium. Both teams are having stellar seasons, with the Dodgers holding a 55-35 record and the Brewers at 52-38. This game marks the third encounter in their current series.

The Dodgers have yet to decide on a starting pitcher for today, which will play a huge role in today's outcome once they do. Conversely, the Brewers will counter with Dallas Keuchel (LHP), who has struggled this season with a 6.75 ERA, albeit with a more promising 4.05 xFIP, indicating some bad luck in his previous outings. Keuchel has started just two games this year and is identified as one of the worst pitchers according to advanced-stat Power Rankings.

The Dodgers’ offense has been an explosive force, ranking 1st in MLB in terms of overall power. Their lineup ranks 4th in batting average and 3rd in home runs, which could spell trouble for Keuchel, a high-flyball pitcher, as his tendencies could lead to an uptick in home runs against this potent Dodgers lineup. With the Dodgers leading the league in home runs, Keuchel’s fly balls could quickly turn into big scoring plays.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, favors the Dodgers heavily, projecting them with a 64% win probability compared to the betting market’s implied 59%. The Dodgers have an implied team total of 5.21 runs, indicating confidence in their ability to capitalize on Keuchel’s struggles. Meanwhile, the Brewers are projected as significant underdogs, with an implied win probability of 41%.

On the offensive side, Will Smith has been red-hot for the Dodgers over the last week, boasting a .375 batting average and a 1.661 OPS, contributing significantly to the team’s success. The Brewers’ Christian Yelich has also been impressive, hitting .357 with a 1.241 OPS over the past seven games.

As this showdown looms, all signs point to the Dodgers having a clear edge thanks to their powerful offense and home-field advantage. Betting on the Dodgers could offer good value given their projected win probability exceeds market expectations.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Out of all SPs, Dallas Keuchel's fastball velocity of 87 mph is in the 1st percentile since the start of last season.

  • Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Christian Yelich's batting average ability is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Teoscar Hernandez has big-time HR ability (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (28.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Dallas Keuchel doesn't generate many whiffs (20th percentile K%) — great news for Hernandez.

  • If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Miguel Vargas hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 9th-shallowest CF fences today.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.80 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 82 games (+6.10 Units / 7% ROI)
  • Freddie Freeman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+9.60 Units / 32% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.6 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.6

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+151
15% MIL
-179
85% LAD

Total Pick Consensus

9.5/-102
18% UN
9.5/-118
82% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-135
7% MIL
-1.5/+114
93% LAD

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
MIL
Team Stats
LAD
4.04
ERA
4.26
.232
Batting Avg Against
.239
1.22
WHIP
1.24
.275
BABIP
.288
8.2%
BB%
7.8%
23.0%
K%
23.0%
73.6%
LOB%
70.6%
.233
Batting Avg
.252
.377
SLG
.456
.689
OPS
.795
.312
OBP
.339
MIL
Team Records
LAD
29-17
Home
32-19
28-26
Road
28-22
44-30
vRHP
34-31
13-13
vLHP
26-10
31-27
vs>.500
29-22
26-16
vs<.500
31-19
5-5
Last10
5-5
10-10
Last20
10-10
16-14
Last30
17-13
D. Keuchel
J. Wrobleski
N/A
Innings
N/A
N/A
GS
N/A
N/A
W-L
N/A
N/A
ERA
N/A
N/A
K/9
N/A
N/A
BB/9
N/A
N/A
HR/9
N/A
N/A
LOB%
N/A
N/A
HR/FB%
N/A
N/A
FIP
N/A
N/A
xFIP
N/A

D. Keuchel

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/1 LAA
Lorenzen N/A
L5-6 N/A
5
6
4
4
1
5
40-79
4/26 KC
Lynch N/A
L0-6 N/A
4
2
2
0
2
5
42-88
4/13 SEA
Ray N/A
W6-4 N/A
5
6
3
3
5
0
53-80
9/27 DET
Manning N/A
W8-7 N/A
5
7
2
2
2
2
52-91
9/21 DET
Alexander N/A
L3-5 N/A
5
11
2
2
2
1
59-95

J. Wrobleski

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
MIL LAD
MIL LAD
Consensus
+150
-178
+151
-179
+150
-180
+150
-180
+150
-178
+150
-178
+138
-165
+155
-182
+150
-178
+143
-170
+150
-185
+150
-185
Open
Current
Book
MIL LAD
MIL LAD
Consensus
+1.5 (-137)
-1.5 (+113)
+1.5 (-137)
-1.5 (+114)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+114)
+1.5 (-140)
-1.5 (+116)
+1.5 (-140)
-1.5 (+116)
+1.5 (-139)
-1.5 (+123)
+1.5 (-139)
-1.5 (+115)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+118)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+115)
+1.5 (-125)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-125)
-1.5 (+105)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
9.5 (-120)
9.5 (+100)
9.5 (+101)
9.5 (-123)
9.5 (-120)
9.5 (+100)
9.0 (-118)
9.0 (-102)
10.0 (+100)
10.0 (-122)
9.5 (+102)
9.5 (-124)
9.5 (-115)
9.5 (-105)
9.5 (+100)
9.5 (-121)
9.5 (-120)
9.5 (+100)
9.0 (-115)
9.0 (-105)
9.5 (-120)
9.5 (+100)
9.5 (-105)
9.5 (-115)