Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/7/2024

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays

Jul 7, 2024

Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Details

  • Date: July 7, 2024
  • Venue: T-Mobile Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays
    • George Kirby - Mariners

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Blue Jays 135, Mariners -160
Runline: Blue Jays 1.5 -160, Mariners -1.5 135
Over/Under Total: 7 -120

Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Toronto Blue Jays - 41% Toronto Blue Jays - 39.36%
Seattle Mariners - 59% Seattle Mariners - 60.64%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays prepare for their matchup on July 7, 2024, at T-Mobile Park, both teams find themselves at different points in their seasons. The Mariners, with a 49-42 record, are having an above-average season, while the Blue Jays are struggling at 40-49. This American League showdown is the third game in their series, with the Mariners looking to capitalize on their home-field advantage.

Seattle will send right-handed pitcher George Kirby to the mound. Kirby, ranked the 17th best starting pitcher in MLB by THE BAT X, has been impressive this season with a 7-6 record and a 3.32 ERA. His low walk rate (2.4 BB%) and ability to keep the ball in the park should serve him well against a Blue Jays offense that ranks 28th in home runs. Kirby's projected 6.1 innings pitched and 2.3 earned runs allowed today further highlight his potential dominance in this game.

Opposing Kirby is Jose Berrios, whose season has been a mixed bag. Despite an 8-6 record and a respectable 3.63 ERA, his 4.49 xFIP suggests he's been somewhat fortunate. Berrios's low strikeout rate (17.6 K%) could play into the hands of a Mariners offense that strikes out more than any other team in MLB. However, his control (6.4 BB%) may negate Seattle's tendency to draw walks, leveling the playing field a bit.

Offensively, both teams have their struggles. The Mariners rank 28th in overall offense and last in team batting average, though they sit 12th in home runs. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays rank 22nd in both overall offense and team batting average, but a dismal 28th in home runs. Seattle's Luke Raley has been their hottest hitter over the past week, batting .261 with a .770 OPS, while George Springer has led the Blue Jays with a .333 average and .985 OPS.

Bullpen-wise, neither team has a significant edge. The Mariners' bullpen ranks 26th in MLB, barely trailing the Blue Jays' 24th-ranked pen. This could lead to some late-game volatility.

With the Mariners as betting favorites (-155) and an implied win probability of 59%, they appear to have the upper hand. The Blue Jays, underdogs at +135 with a 41% implied win probability, will need to overcome their offensive woes and hope Berrios can outpitch his projections to pull off an upset.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Tallying 18.2 outs per outing this year on average, Jose Berrios ranks in the 95th percentile.

  • A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Danny Jansen is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Danny Jansen pulls many of his flyballs (43.3% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

With 6 batters who share his handedness in the opposing team's projected batting order, George Kirby ought to benefit from holding the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's matchup.

  • Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Dominic Canzone's average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 89.6-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 83.1-mph in the past two weeks.

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners's expected catcher today) grades out as an elite pitch framer.

  • Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 37 games at home (+11.80 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 78 games (+7.40 Units / 8% ROI)
  • George Springer has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+9.55 Units / 25% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 3.81 vs Seattle Mariners 4.52

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+126
18% TOR
-147
82% SEA

Total Pick Consensus

7.5/-122
19% UN
7.5/+102
81% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-175
34% TOR
-1.5/+145
66% SEA

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
TOR
Team Stats
SEA
3.68
ERA
3.72
.238
Batting Avg Against
.233
1.24
WHIP
1.18
.294
BABIP
.287
8.0%
BB%
7.0%
25.1%
K%
24.6%
76.4%
LOB%
72.3%
.260
Batting Avg
.237
.415
SLG
.403
.746
OPS
.719
.331
OBP
.315
TOR
Team Records
SEA
21-24
Home
30-18
22-28
Road
22-27
36-41
vRHP
38-34
7-11
vLHP
14-11
25-38
vs>.500
25-26
18-14
vs<.500
27-19
4-6
Last10
5-5
8-12
Last20
8-12
11-19
Last30
15-15
J. Berríos
G. Kirby
N/A
Innings
144.2
N/A
GS
23
N/A
W-L
10-8
N/A
ERA
3.11
N/A
K/9
8.15
N/A
BB/9
0.87
N/A
HR/9
0.93
N/A
LOB%
75.8%
N/A
HR/FB%
9.7%
N/A
FIP
3.18
N/A
xFIP
3.57

J. Berríos

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

G. Kirby

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
TOR SEA
TOR SEA
Consensus
+132
-155
+126
-147
+130
-155
+124
-148
+132
-156
+126
-148
+130
-152
+125
-148
+135
-160
+122
-145
+125
-155
+135
-160
Open
Current
Book
TOR SEA
TOR SEA
Consensus
+1.5 (-174)
-1.5 (+132)
+1.5 (-174)
-1.5 (+145)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+145)
+1.5 (-182)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-182)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-182)
-1.5 (+143)
+1.5 (-182)
-1.5 (+148)
+1.5 (-170)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-170)
-1.5 (+143)
+1.5 (-160)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-160)
-1.5 (+135)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
7.0 (-125)
7.0 (+105)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-121)
7.0 (-125)
7.0 (+105)
7.5 (+102)
7.5 (-122)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-115)
7.0 (-120)
7.0 (-102)
7.5 (-103)
7.5 (-120)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-121)
7.0 (-125)
7.0 (+105)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-115)
7.0 (-125)
7.0 (+105)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-120)