Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction & Picks 6/8/2024

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Details

• Date: June 8, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ben Brown - Cubs
  • Andrew Abbott - Reds

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs are set to clash on June 8, 2024, at Great American Ball Park in a National League Central matchup. Both teams share identical records of 31-33, marking below-average seasons thus far. The Reds, who are hosting, will look to leverage home-field advantage in this third game of the series.

Andrew Abbott is slated to start for the Reds. With a 4-5 record and a 3.39 ERA over 12 starts, Abbott has shown flashes of brilliance. However, his 4.56 xFIP suggests that he might have been lucky and could face regression. Abbott's control has been a strong point, with a walk rate of just 6.4%. This could neutralize the Cubs' patient approach at the plate, as they rank 5th in drawing walks.

On the other side, Ben Brown will get the nod for the Cubs. Brown has split his time between the bullpen and starting rotation, posting a 1-2 record and an impressive 3.33 ERA. However, his 2.63 FIP indicates he has been somewhat unlucky and might perform even better moving forward. Brown's high strikeout rate of 29.6% could be crucial against a Reds offense that ranks 6th in strikeouts.

Offensively, the Reds have been average, ranking 17th overall, but they have struggled with consistency, as evidenced by their 25th-ranked team batting average. However, they do excel in stealing bases, ranking 2nd in MLB. TJ Friedl has been a standout over the last week, hitting .304 with two home runs and seven RBIs.

The Cubs' offense has been less potent, ranking 20th overall and 27th in team batting average. They do have some power, ranking 16th in home runs. Seiya Suzuki has been hot recently, boasting a .286 average and two home runs in the past week.

Both bullpens are relatively average, with the Reds ranked 19th and the Cubs 16th in advanced-stat Power Rankings. Betting markets see this as a closely contested game, with the Reds holding a slight edge with a moneyline of -120, implying a 52% win probability. The Cubs are at +100, implying a 48% chance. Given the high game total of 9.0 runs, expect some offensive fireworks in this matchup.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Compared to league average, Ben Brown has been granted a shorter leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, tallying an -14.7 fewer adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Mike Tauchman is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Patrick Wisdom pulls many of his flyballs (38.1% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

With 6 batters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team's projected offense, Andrew Abbott will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Elly De La Cruz's speed has declined this year. His 30.53 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 30.01 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Cincinnati Reds have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Will Benson, Luke Maile, Elly De La Cruz).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games at home (+11.40 Units / 44% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.70 Units / 33% ROI)
• TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+11.10 Units / 185% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.95 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.72

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.