Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels Pick & Prediction – 6/8/2024

Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels Details

• Date: June 8, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Brown - Astros
  • Tyler Anderson - Angels

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Angels, hosting the Houston Astros on June 8, 2024, at Angel Stadium, are looking to turn their season around. Currently sitting at 24-39, the Angels are having a troublesome year. On the other side, the Astros are slightly better off with a 29-35 record, but their performance has still been below average.

Yesterday, the Astros secured a victory over the Angels, adding some momentum to their upcoming game. The matchup will feature Tyler Anderson for the Angels and Hunter Brown for the Astros. Both pitchers bring contrasting stories to the mound. Anderson, a lefty with a solid 2.37 ERA in 12 starts, has managed a 5-5 record. However, his peripheral stats suggest he may have been lucky, and his xFIP of 5.07 indicates potential regression.

Conversely, Brown's 6.18 ERA over 11 starts paints a grim picture, but there's hope for the Astros as his 3.73 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky. With a win/loss record of 1-5, Brown could find some redemption against an Angels offense ranked 19th overall but boasting a decent 7th in home runs and 9th in stolen bases.

Zach Neto has been the standout for the Angels over the past week, tallying five RBIs and a home run in five games. Meanwhile, Yordan Alvarez has been on fire for the Astros, with a .421 batting average, three homers, and a 1.424 OPS in the last seven days.

The Astros have a clear edge on offense, ranking 6th overall and 2nd in team batting average. Their power at the plate could exploit Anderson's high flyball rate. On the pitching front, THE BAT X—the leading MLB projection system—projects Anderson to allow 3.2 earned runs and Brown to concede 2.5 earned runs, favoring the Astros slightly.

The betting odds have the Astros as the favorites at -160, with an implied win probability of 59%. Given their offensive firepower and Brown's potential for a bounce-back performance, the Astros are positioned to take the second game of the series.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Hunter Brown has utilized his slider 16.7% less often this season (8.4%) than he did last year (25.1%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Yordan Alvarez's 17.7% Barrel% (a reliable stat to evaluate power) grades out in the 99th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Houston's 88.6-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is among the worst in the majors: #23 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Out of all SPs, Tyler Anderson's fastball velocity of 88.6 mph grades out in the 1st percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Willie Calhoun has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Today, Logan O'Hoppe is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36.2% rate (92nd percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 18 of their last 26 games (+6.15 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 61 games (+10.55 Units / 16% ROI)
• Jo Adell has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.60 Units / 59% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 5.49 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.22

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