Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays Pick & Prediction – 6/8/2024

Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore Orioles

Jun 8, 2024

Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Details

  • Date: June 8, 2024
  • Venue: Tropicana Field
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Kyle Bradish - Orioles
    • Taj Bradley - Rays

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Orioles -135, Rays 115
Runline: Orioles -1.5 130, Rays 1.5 -150
Over/Under Total: 8 -105

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Baltimore Orioles - 55% Baltimore Orioles - 53.34%
Tampa Bay Rays - 45% Tampa Bay Rays - 46.66%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles are set for an American League East showdown on June 8, 2024, at Tropicana Field. The Rays, who have had an average season with a 31-32 record, will look to bounce back against the Orioles, who are enjoying a stellar season at 40-22. This game marks the second in the series between these division rivals.

Tampa Bay will send right-hander Taj Bradley to the mound. Bradley has struggled this season with a 1-3 record and a 5.81 ERA. However, his 3.61 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky and could improve moving forward. Bradley’s high-flyball rate (41%) could be problematic against a powerful Orioles lineup that leads MLB with 95 home runs. The Rays' offense, ranked 23rd overall, will need to find ways to support Bradley despite their lack of power, ranking 28th in home runs.

On the other side, the Orioles will counter with right-hander Kyle Bradish, who has been impressive with a 1-0 record and a 3.18 ERA. Bradish’s 2.65 xERA indicates he has also been a bit unlucky and could perform even better. His high-groundball rate (53%) might neutralize the Rays' weak power game. The Orioles' offense, ranked 3rd overall and 1st in home runs, will look to capitalize on any mistakes Bradley makes.

Both teams have solid bullpens, with the Rays ranked 8th and the Orioles 15th in the Power Rankings. The Rays’ bullpen ranking is significantly better than their year-to-date performance.

With the Orioles favored at -140 and an implied win probability of 56%, they look to continue their strong season. However, given Bradley's potential for improvement based on his underlying metrics, the Rays could surprise and defy the odds.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Kyle Bradish has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls 7.4% less often this season (49.6%) than he did last season (57%).

  • Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Kyle Stowers's 0% Barrel% (a reliable standard to evaluate power) ranks in the 0th percentile since the start of last season.

  • Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Baltimore Orioles bats as a group rank among the elite in the league since the start of last season (5th-) when assessing their 89.4-mph average exit velocity.

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Taj Bradley's 95.5-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 94th percentile among all starters.

  • Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Yandy Diaz's footspeed has decreased this year. His 26.61 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.17 ft/sec now.

  • Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (45.2% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 61 games (+20.35 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 43 games (+13.20 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Jose Siri has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.65 Units / 65% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.2 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.69

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-136
82% BAL
+116
18% TB

Total Pick Consensus

8.0/-112
3% UN
8.0/-108
97% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/+124
96% BAL
+1.5/-148
4% TB

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
BAL
Team Stats
TB
4.12
ERA
3.88
.243
Batting Avg Against
.230
1.28
WHIP
1.20
.299
BABIP
.282
8.3%
BB%
7.7%
23.9%
K%
24.0%
73.2%
LOB%
73.2%
.251
Batting Avg
.256
.420
SLG
.443
.737
OPS
.770
.318
OBP
.327
BAL
Team Records
TB
23-12
Home
18-23
22-10
Road
14-13
31-17
vRHP
21-30
14-5
vLHP
11-6
20-7
vs>.500
8-18
25-15
vs<.500
24-18
8-2
Last10
4-6
16-4
Last20
7-13
20-10
Last30
13-17
K. Bradish
T. Bradley
121.2
Innings
74.2
22
GS
16
7-6
W-L
5-7
3.18
ERA
5.67
8.43
K/9
11.93
2.52
BB/9
3.13
0.89
HR/9
1.69
78.6%
LOB%
64.8%
11.2%
HR/FB%
17.3%
3.66
FIP
4.14
3.82
xFIP
3.48
.229
AVG
.261
23.0%
K%
30.0%
6.9%
BB%
7.9%
4.02
SIERA
3.54

K. Bradish

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/4 MIN
Bundy N/A
W9-4 N/A
4
6
4
4
3
2
38-70
4/29 BOS
Hill N/A
L1-3 N/A
6
5
3
2
2
1
52-81

T. Bradley

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
BAL TB
BAL TB
Consensus
-143
+123
-136
+116
-142
+120
-135
+114
-148
+126
-136
+116
-143
+123
-136
+114
-140
+118
-135
+115
-145
+120
-135
+115
Open
Current
Book
BAL TB
BAL TB
Consensus
-1.5 (+116)
+1.5 (-143)
-1.5 (+121)
+1.5 (-146)
-1.5 (+114)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+124)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+112)
+1.5 (-134)
-1.5 (+118)
+1.5 (-142)
-1.5 (+116)
+1.5 (-143)
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+118)
+1.5 (-140)
-1.5 (+122)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-155)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.0 (-118)
8.0 (-103)
8.0 (-107)
8.0 (-113)
8.0 (-102)
8.0 (-118)
8.0 (-108)
8.0 (-112)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-106)
8.0 (-114)
8.0 (-118)
8.0 (-103)
8.0 (-106)
8.0 (-114)
8.0 (+100)
8.0 (-120)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)