Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 8, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Pivetta - Red Sox
  • Chris Sale - Braves

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

On May 8, 2024, the Atlanta Braves will face off against the Boston Red Sox at Truist Park. The Braves, with a record of 21-12, are having a great season and will be looking to continue their success as the home team. The Red Sox, with a record of 19-17, are having an above-average season and will be aiming to secure a victory as the away team. This Interleague matchup promises an exciting game for baseball fans.

The Braves are projected to start Chris Sale, an elite left-handed pitcher. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Sale is ranked as the #10 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. He has started six games this year, boasting a 4-1 win/loss record and an impressive ERA of 3.44. Despite his strong performance, Sale's 2.74 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky this season and is likely to perform even better going forward.

On the other side, the Red Sox are projected to start Nick Pivetta, a right-handed pitcher. Pivetta is ranked as the #81 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. He has started two games this year, achieving a 1-1 win/loss record and an excellent ERA of 0.82. However, his 2.59 xFIP indicates that he has been lucky this season and may face challenges in maintaining his performance.

In terms of offense, the Braves have been impressive this season. They rank as the #4 best offense in MLB, with a strong team batting average and the most home runs in the league. Their power at the plate could pose a challenge for Pivetta, who has a tendency to give up flyballs. The Red Sox, on the other hand, have a solid offense, ranking #9 in MLB. They have a strong team batting average but an average ranking in terms of home runs.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Braves have the advantage. Our advanced-stat Power Rankings consider their bullpen as the #5 best in MLB, while the Red Sox's bullpen ranks as the #27 best. This could play a crucial role in the late innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Braves are the favorites to win with a moneyline of -195 and an implied win probability of 64%. The Red Sox, as the underdogs, have a moneyline of +170 and an implied win probability of 36%.

Overall, this game promises an exciting matchup between two competitive teams. The Braves' strong offense and elite pitcher, Chris Sale, give them an edge. However, the Red Sox have shown resilience this season and will be looking to capitalize on their above-average performance. Baseball fans can expect a thrilling game at Truist Park.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Nick Pivetta to be limited in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 80 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Jarren Duran's quickness has decreased this season. His 29.5 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.88 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox' bullpen profiles as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Chris Sale has relied on his slider 7% more often this year (44.6%) than he did last year (37.6%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

When it comes to his home runs, Marcell Ozuna has had some very good luck since the start of last season. His 41.0 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 31.8.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Jarred Kelenic hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.9% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 56 games at home (+12.64 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 36 of their last 65 away games (+6.03 Units / 8% ROI)
• Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+8.30 Units / 30% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.01 vs Atlanta Braves 5.65

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.