Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 8, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Weathers - Marlins
  • Gavin Stone - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

In an exciting National League matchup, the Los Angeles Dodgers will face off against the Miami Marlins on May 8, 2024, at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers, with a remarkable record of 24-13 this season, are having a great year. On the other hand, the struggling Marlins hold a disappointing record of 10-27, making this a mismatched contest.

The Dodgers are projected to start Gavin Stone, a right-handed pitcher who has had a decent season so far. Stone has started six games this year, with a win/loss record of 2-1 and an ERA of 4.06. However, his 4.77 SIERA suggests that he may have been lucky and could perform worse going forward. Despite this, Stone is still considered the #167 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

Opposing Stone on the mound will be Ryan Weathers, a left-handed pitcher for the Marlins. Weathers has struggled this season, with a win/loss record of 2-3 and an ERA of 4.54. His 5.09 xERA and 5.09 FIP indicate that he may have been fortunate in his performances and could regress in the future.

In terms of team rankings, the Marlins offense has struggled, ranking as the second-worst in MLB. However, they do have the third-best team batting average. The Dodgers, on the other hand, have the best offense in MLB, ranking #12 in team batting average.

Considering the projections, Gavin Stone is expected to pitch an average of 5.3 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs and striking out 4.8 batters. However, he is projected to give up 5.4 hits and 1.4 walks, which are areas for concern. Ryan Weathers, on the other hand, is projected to pitch an average of 4.6 innings, allowing 3.6 earned runs and striking out 3.7 batters. He is also projected to give up 5.6 hits and 2.3 walks.

In terms of the betting odds, the Dodgers are heavily favored with a current moneyline of -265, implying a 70% chance of winning. The Marlins, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +225, implying a 30% chance of winning. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring affair.

With the Dodgers' dominant offense and the Marlins' struggling pitching staff, the odds are in favor of the Dodgers in this matchup. However, anything can happen in baseball, and the Marlins will be looking to defy the odds and pull off an upset. It will be an exciting game to watch as these two teams battle it out on the field.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Ryan Weathers's fastball spin rate has increased 110 rpm this season (2318 rpm) over where it was last year (2208 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Jake Burger's 16.4% Barrel% (a reliable stat to study power) ranks in the 98th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

It may be best to expect stronger performance for the Miami Marlins offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 4th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Compared to average, Gavin Stone has been granted less leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an -9.3 fewer adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Miguel Rojas's footspeed has dropped off this year. His 26.38 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.85 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Los Angeles Dodgers batters as a group rank 5th- in the league for power since the start of last season when using their 9.2% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 49 of their last 84 games (+14.15 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 57 away games (+11.00 Units / 18% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani has hit the RBIs Over in 18 of his last 31 games (+10.20 Units / 33% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.66 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 6.59

Get daily MLB picks here.