Los Angeles Angels vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 8, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Soriano - Angels
  • Martin Perez - Pirates

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

In an Interleague matchup, the Pittsburgh Pirates are set to host the Los Angeles Angels at PNC Park on May 8, 2024. The Pirates, with a record of 17-20 this season, are having a below-average season, while the struggling Angels hold a record of 13-23.

On the mound, the Pirates are projected to start left-handed pitcher Martin Perez. Perez, ranked as the #189 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has started 7 games this year. With a current win/loss record of 1-2 and an impressive ERA of 3.15, Perez has been performing well. However, his 4.28 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances.

Opposing Perez will be right-handed pitcher Jose Soriano of the Angels, who is ranked as the #85 best starting pitcher in MLB. Soriano has started 4 games this season, boasting a win/loss record of 1-4 and an ERA of 3.77. However, his 4.91 xERA and 4.68 FIP indicate that he may have been fortunate and could face challenges in upcoming outings.

The Pirates offense has struggled this season, ranking as the #27 best in MLB. Their team batting average is also low, placing them at #26 in the league. However, they have shown some power, ranking #23 in team home runs. Their ability to steal bases is average, ranking #12 in MLB.

On the other hand, the Angels offense has been more productive, ranking as the #15 best in MLB. They have a solid team batting average, coming in at #12 in the league. Their power is notable, as they rank #3 in team home runs. However, their ability to steal bases is lacking, ranking #27 in the league.

In terms of pitching, the Pirates bullpen is considered the #6 best in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Meanwhile, the Angels bullpen ranks near the bottom at #29.

Looking at the betting odds, the Pirates are favored with a moneyline of -135, implying a win probability of 55%. The Angels, with a moneyline of +115, have a win probability of 45%. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Pirates have a projected win probability of 54%, while the Angels have a projected win probability of 46%.

Based on the current odds, the Pirates have a high implied team total of 4.50 runs, while the Angels have an average implied team total of 4.00 runs. THE BAT X projects the Pirates to score an average of 4.62 runs in this game, while the Angels are projected to score 4.53 runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

In his previous start, Jose Soriano was firing on all cylinders and gave up 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Jo Adell is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Compared to their .318 overall projected rate, the .306 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Los Angeles Angels projected lineup today suggests this version of the lineup a good deal a bit watered down.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Martin Perez has a mean projection of 5.8 hits today, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Rowdy Tellez's footspeed has increased this year. His 23.36 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.14 ft/sec now.

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen projects as the 6th-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 59 games (+13.10 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 78 games (+8.80 Units / 10% ROI)
• Taylor Ward has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 19 away games (+12.20 Units / 64% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.52 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.62

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