New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 8, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Quintana - Mets
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

On May 8, 2024, the St. Louis Cardinals are set to face off against the New York Mets at Busch Stadium. This National League matchup will see the Cardinals as the home team. While the Cardinals have been struggling this season with a 15-21 record, the Mets have had an average season so far, with an 18-18 record.

The Cardinals are projected to start their right-handed pitcher, Sonny Gray, who has been exceptional this year. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Gray is ranked as the #8 best starting pitcher in MLB, making him an elite player. In contrast, the Mets are projected to start their left-handed pitcher, Jose Quintana, who has had a rough season. Quintana is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB, according to our Power Rankings.

Going into this game, the Cardinals' offense ranks #28 in MLB, showcasing their struggles this season. However, they have shown some strength in team batting average (#7) and team home runs (#5). On the other hand, the Mets' offense ranks #15 overall, with their strongest suit being team home runs (#11).

In terms of pitching, Gray is a high-strikeout pitcher with a 33.3% strikeout rate this year. However, the Mets' offense has the fourth-fewest strikeouts in MLB, potentially giving them an advantage. Quintana, known for his high groundball rate (48%), will be up against a powerful Cardinals offense that has hit 165 home runs this season, ranking them fifth in the league.

Based on the current odds, the Cardinals are the betting favorites with an implied win probability of 60%. The Mets, as underdogs, have a 40% chance of winning according to the odds. The Game Total for this match is relatively low at 7.5 runs.

While the Cardinals have struggled this season, the presence of the elite pitcher Sonny Gray gives them an edge. However, the Mets' offense, with its ability to limit strikeouts, could pose a challenge for Gray. Additionally, Quintana's groundball tendencies might neutralize the Cardinals' power-hitting lineup.

This game has potential for an intriguing match-up, combining the Cardinals' offensive power with the Mets' resilience. Fans can look forward to seeing how the game unfolds and if the Cardinals can overcome their season-long struggles.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Because of his reverse platoon split, Jose Quintana will benefit from being matched up with 7 bats in the projected lineup of the opposite hand in today's game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Omar Narvaez's footspeed has decreased this year. His 24.38 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 23.2 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The New York Mets have done a strong job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-contacted balls. Their 13.9° mark is among the highest in the game since the start of last season (#3 overall).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Among all SPs, Sonny Gray's fastball spin rate of 2543 rpm is in the 97th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

When it comes to his home runs, Paul Goldschmidt has had bad variance on his side this year. His 7.9 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a good deal lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 26.7.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals' bullpen projects as the 2nd-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 61 games (+4.55 Units / 7% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 63 of their last 115 games (+13.15 Units / 10% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 35 games (+6.80 Units / 13% ROI)

New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 3.88 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.99

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