San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 8, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dylan Cease - Padres
  • Hayden Wesneski - Cubs

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

On May 8, 2024, the Chicago Cubs will face off against the San Diego Padres at Wrigley Field. The Cubs, with a record of 22-15, are having a great season, while the Padres, with a record of 19-20, are having an average season. This National League matchup is the third game in the series between these two teams.

The Cubs will be the home team, and they have the advantage of playing at Wrigley Field. The game is scheduled to be played on May 8, 2024. In their last game on May 7, the Cubs played the Padres and emerged victorious with a score of 3-2. The Cubs were the big favorite to win that game, with a closing Moneyline price of -165 and an implied win probability of 61%. The Padres, on the other hand, were the underdogs, with a closing Moneyline price of +150 and an implied win probability of 39%.

The Cubs are projected to start Hayden Wesneski, a right-handed pitcher who has been performing at an average level this season. Wesneski has started two games and has a perfect 2-0 win/loss record with an excellent ERA of 0.54. However, his 3.50 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances.

The Padres will counter with Dylan Cease, a right-handed pitcher who has been performing exceptionally well this season. Cease has started seven games and has a solid 4-2 win/loss record with an excellent ERA of 2.55. However, his 3.48 xFIP indicates that he may have been fortunate and could see a decline in performance going forward.

In terms of offensive rankings, the Cubs have the 13th best offense in MLB this season, while the Padres have the 7th best offense. The Cubs rank 9th in team batting average and 12th in team home runs, while the Padres rank 20th in batting average and 10th in home runs. Both teams have been successful in stealing bases, with the Cubs ranking 6th and the Padres ranking 7th in MLB.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Cubs have an average implied team total of 3.81 runs, while the Padres have an average implied team total of 4.19 runs. THE BAT X projects the Cubs to score 4.18 runs on average in this game, while the Padres are projected to score 4.88 runs.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Dylan Cease's 96.1-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.2-mph jump from last season's 94.9-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jurickson Profar's true offensive talent to be a .311, implying that he has been lucky this year given the .097 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .408 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The San Diego Padres bullpen profiles as the 8th-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Hayden Wesneski has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 16.8 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Mike Tauchman is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Christopher Morel pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.8% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+8.30 Units / 36% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 25 games (+10.45 Units / 28% ROI)
• Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.90 Units / 51% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.88 vs Chicago Cubs 4.18

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