Milwaukee Brewers vs Kansas City Royals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 8, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joe Ross - Brewers
  • Brady Singer - Royals

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

The Kansas City Royals will host the Milwaukee Brewers in an Interleague matchup on May 8, 2024, at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals, with a record of 21-16, are having a good season, while the Brewers, with a record of 21-14, are having a great season. This will be the third game in the series between these two teams.

The Royals are projected to start right-handed pitcher Brady Singer, who has been performing above average this season. Singer has started 7 games and has a win/loss record of 2-1. His ERA stands at an excellent 2.45, but his 3.23 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances.

On the other hand, the Brewers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Joe Ross, who has been deemed a below-average pitcher. Ross has started 6 games and has a win/loss record of 1-3. His ERA is at an average 4.65, but his 3.94 xERA and 3.93 FIP indicate that he may have been unlucky and could perform better going forward.

In terms of offense, the Royals rank as the 16th best team in MLB this season, with an average team batting average and a very low ranking in team home runs. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 4th in the league. The Brewers, on the other hand, rank as the 5th best team in MLB, with a high ranking in overall offense but a low ranking in team batting average and home runs.

According to advanced-stat Power Rankings, the Royals bullpen ranks 18th best in MLB, while the Brewers bullpen ranks 12th best. These rankings provide an estimate of underlying talent regardless of year-to-date performance.

The Game Total for today's game is currently set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average expectation. The Royals have a higher implied team total of 4.45 runs, while the Brewers have an average implied team total of 4.05 runs.

Based on the current odds, the Royals are favored with a moneyline of -130 and an implied win probability of 54%, while the Brewers have a moneyline of +110 and an implied win probability of 46%. The betting markets anticipate a close game.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Joe Ross has experienced some negative variance in regards to his ERA this year; his 4.65 rate is considerably higher than his 3.97 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Bats such as Rhys Hoskins with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Brady Singer who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

William Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 94th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 4th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

In his previous game started, Brady Singer performed well and accumulated 8 strikeouts.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

MJ Melendez is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Rating 6th-highest in MLB since the start of last season, Kansas City Royals hitters jointly have recorded a 13.6° launch angle on their hardest-hit balls (a reliable standard to measure power ability).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 61 games at home (+12.37 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Run Line in 25 of their last 41 games (+10.00 Units / 19% ROI)
• Michael Massey has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 51% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.52 vs Kansas City Royals 5.02

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