The quarterfinal round of the College Football Playoff will see the Texas Longhorns battle the Arizona State Sun Devils at the Peach Bowl. In this matchup, a former Big 12 team will take on one of the new members of the Big 12, with both teams looking to lock up a spot in the semifinals. Texas is a heavy favorite going into this game, as oddsmakers have them favored by 12.5 points against ASU.
Here, we break down Texas vs Arizona State in the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff. Using our in-depth knowledge of college football and our statistical models that help us to accurately project the outcome of games on a regular basis, you can rest assured that our Texas vs Arizona State prediction is one you can trust.
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Texas Looks to Build On First Round Win
The Texas Longhorns were heavy favorites in the first round of the College Football Playoff against the Clemson Tigers. And they advanced through that game, defeating Dabo Swinney’s team to make the quarterfinals. Now the question is whether Texas can live up to the high expectations set for them again, as the latest college football odds have them as huge favorites against Arizona State.
So far this season, the Longhorns have lost just two games, with both of those losses coming against the Georgia Bulldogs. With Georgia winning the SEC and earning the second seed in this tournament, there is certainly no shame in losing to Kirby Smart’s squad. But the question going into this game is whether or not the Longhorns can do a good enough job of stopping the run to avoid losing to a team that isn’t Georgia for the first time.
It is no secret that Arizona State likes to run the ball early and often with battering ram/running back Cam Skattebo. But Texas entered the playoff ranked 13th in the country in rushing yards per game allowed. If they can stuff Skattebo and the Arizona State running game in this matchup, they could run away with things and secure their spot in the final four in the new-look CFP.
Can Arizona State Shock the Longhorns?
The Arizona State Sun Devils received a bye in the first round of the College Football Playoff, by virtue of being one of the top-four conference champions for the season. Their reward for earning that bye is a game against a Texas team that was a top-five team in the country for most of the 2024 season. But Arizona State will relish the opportunity to face a team like Texas and to prove that they belong on this stage with the Longhorns.
Of course, the focal point of the Arizona State offense is Skattebo, who recently accepted an invitation to play in the Senior Bowl. In order to avoid this game being Skattebo’s last as a Sun Devil, the offensive line for Arizona State is going to need to hold up against the Texas defensive front to get Skattebo past the first level. From there, Skattebo’s ability to break tackles should be just fine.
On defense, the Sun Devils finished their Big 12 championship campaign ranked 31st in the country in points allowed. They gave up 21.3 points per game, giving up over 25 points just twice in Big 12 play this season. If they can keep Texas around a similar number in this contest, they could certainly do enough offensively to win this matchup.
Texas vs Arizona State Prediction
Our best bet for Texas vs Arizona State is for the Texas Longhorns to cover the spread as a double-digit favorite. While Arizona State has been a fun story all season long, this isn’t a great matchup for the Sun Devils, as their run-heavy style isn’t likely to work against one of the best run defenses in the country. Look for Texas to win big in this game and to get to the semifinal round without too much trouble.
