The Ole Miss Rebels (10–1) will head to Starkville to face the Mississippi State Bulldogs (5–6) in the 2025 Egg Bowl on Friday afternoon. There is much more than bragging rights on the line going into this game. The Rebels hope to cap off a stellar regular season and lock up a college‑playoff berth. The Bulldogs are fighting to become bowl‑eligible and send their seniors out with a win at home. Before this massive contest from Mississippi, continue reading to get my Ole Miss vs Mississippi State prediction.
Our Ole Miss vs Mississippi State Pick
Pick: Mississippi State +7.5
Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Ole Miss Rebels vs Mississippi State Bulldogs
- Date & Time: Friday, November 28, 2025, 12:00 PM ET
- Venue: Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field, Starkville, MS
- Broadcast: ABC
Key Storylines
- For Ole Miss, this is more than a rivalry game this year. A win likely secures a spot in the College Football Playoff, even if the Rebels fall short of the SEC championship game. The program is riding high, and expectations are high across the board.
- Off-field distractions swirl around Ole Miss. Speculation about the future of head coach Lane Kiffin has been rampant. While he hasn’t confirmed anything, many expect an announcement after this game. That could derail the Rebels as they look to hold serve and land a spot in the playoff.
- The Bulldogs enter this game as a desperate team at 5–6. A win means bowl eligibility and the chance to deny their biggest rivals a place in this year’s playoff. Mississippi State will be highly motivated as a result of those factors.
- Mississippi State has given up over 40 points in each of its last two games and will need to be better on defense to slow down the Ole Miss offense.
Quarterback Play
At the helm for Ole Miss is senior signal-caller Trinidad Chambliss, who has delivered a consistent and efficient season. Chambliss has 2,657 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, and just 3 interceptions. His 65.2% completion rate and ability to contribute on the ground gives the Rebels a multi-dimensional offense.
Mississippi State will go with senior QB Blake Shapen, who has passed for 2,433 yards with 15 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. That turnover rate is a concern, as Mississippi State can’t afford to fall behind or lose out on crucial possessions in this contest. But Shapen has proven he can help the Bulldogs hang around against elite teams.
Betting Trends
- Ole Miss is 6–5 against the spread this season. They’ve covered in just 3 of 7 games when favored by at least a touchdown.
- Mississippi State has outperformed expectations against the spread at 8–3.
- Both of these teams are 6-5 to the over going into this contest.
Ole Miss vs Mississippi State Model Projection
Score Projection: Ole Miss 34 – Mississippi State 28
Win Probability: Ole Miss 76%, Mississippi State 24%
Final Thoughts
Ole Miss is the better team going into this game. But the combination of pressure on them to win and make the playoff and the distractions regarding Lane Kiffin’s situation could make this a tougher game than expected for the visitors. I’m going to take the points with Mississippi State, even though Ole Miss should pull this one out with their talent on the field.
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