A few races into the 2026 Formula 1 season, Ferrari looks closer to the front of the pack than they have in years. While still trailing Mercedes by a healthy margin both in qualifying trim and on race pace, Ferrari have shown that particularly at the start of races that they can challenge the Silver Arrows.
Mercedes has the strongest overall package. Their engine is the most powerful on the grid, and their tire management over long runs remains the benchmark. Ferrari, on the other hand, looks sharper in the corners and has clearly mastered the new start procedure introduced for 2026.
That contrast between the two packages is exactly where betting opportunities start to open up.
The Core Difference: Engine vs Cornering
Right now, the strengths of the two teams are very distinct.
- Best engine performance, especially on long straights
- Stronger tire wear over race distance
- More consistent pace across different track types
- Better mechanical grip and cornering speed
- Faster off the start line
- More competitive on technical sections
This split is critical.
All the while they have the horsepower advantage, Mercedes will almost always have the edge on Ferrari at tracks where straight-line speed and efficiency matter most. Ferrari become more dangerous when races are decided in the corners rather than on the straights.
Where Ferrari Can Actually Win Races
If you are trying to pick Ferrari spots, you need to focus on circuits where their cornering advantage outweighs Mercedes’ engine and tire edge. The Ferrari was able to recoup as much as 0.8 seconds per lap through the technical Sector 1 in China, and if they can maintain this advantage, they could pose a serious threat to Mercedes on high-downforce circuits.
High-Downforce, Technical Tracks
These are the tracks where Ferrari becomes a serious win contender.
Think:
- Hungaroring- Hungarian Grand Prix
- Monaco Circuit- Monaco Grand Prix
- Marina Bay Street Circuit- Singapore Grand Prix
- Circuit Zandvoort- Dutch Grand Prix
Why these suit Ferrari:
- Limited overtaking reduces the impact of Mercedes’ engine
- Cornering grip and traction matter more than top speed
- Qualifying position is often decisive
Betting angle:
These are your best Ferrari win opportunities. Back them for:
- Race winner
- Pole position
- Podium markets
Medium-Speed, Flowing Circuits
These are more balanced, but still offer Ferrari a chance.
Key tracks:
- Suzuka Circuit
- Silverstone Circuit
- Circuit of the Americas
Here, Ferrari’s cornering can match Mercedes through technical sections, especially in sectors with fast direction changes.
The problem is that these tracks also include long straights, where Mercedes can recover time. Take Suzuka for example, where the Ferrari should be strong in the Sector 1 Esses and technical Sector 2, but Mercedes are likely to dominate in Sector 3 where drivers are flat out for 90% of the sector. Ferrari have been clipping (conserving energy) earlier on the straights while Mercedes are able to deploy energy for much longer. This resulted in a gap of around 0.9 seconds per lap on straight sections in China.
Ferrari are looking at solutions to close the gap, with their drag-reducing ‘Macarena’ rear wing showing promise in Shanghai.
Betting angle:
- Ferrari is viable for podiums and top 3 finishes
- Race wins are possible, but more dependent on qualifying and strategy
Where Mercedes Still Dominate
If you want to avoid backing Ferrari, these are the types of tracks to watch.
Key examples:
- Monza Circuit
- Baku City Circuit
- Las Vegas Strip Circuit
Why Mercedes dominates here:
- Long straights maximize engine advantage
- Overtaking is easier, reducing qualifying importance
- Tire management plays a bigger role over race distance
Betting angle:
These are Mercedes-heavy tracks provided Ferrari doesn’t close the gap in engine power as the season progresses. This means Ferrari becomes:
- A weaker win candidate
- More of a long-shot podium play behind other Mercedes-powered cars
Tire Wear Still Tips the Balance Over a Season
Even on tracks where Ferrari is competitive, tire degradation remains a key issue.
Mercedes is better at:
- Extending stints without losing pace
- Managing different tire compounds
- Adapting to changing race conditions
This is why Ferrari may win specific races, but still struggle to string together consistent results across a full season.
For bettors, it also affects race dynamics. Ferrari often looks strongest early in stints or right after pit stops. Mercedes tends to come back into play as the race unfolds.
Practical Betting Strategy Going Forward
If you want a simple way to apply this:
Back Ferrari when:
- The track is tight, technical, and corner-heavy
- Overtaking is difficult
- Qualifying position is crucial
Back Mercedes when:
- The circuit features long straights
- Tire wear is expected to be high
- Race pace matters more than grid position
Be cautious when:
- The track is mixed and balanced
- Weather or safety cars could disrupt strategy
Final Verdict
Ferrari is not just competitive in 2026, but they could even challenge the dominant Mercedes should they develop their engine to challenge the Silver Arrows’ superior Power Unit, and manage tire wear to the point of being competitive. Ferrari’s edge comes from cornering and their ability to get off the line, which only fully pays off on certain types of tracks… for now at least.
For bettors, that clarity is valuable. You do not need Ferrari to be the best team overall. You just need to recognize the weekends where their strengths actually decide the race. Meanwhile, the wider Formula 1 community waits expectantly. The last thing this brave new era of Formula 1 needs is a one-horse race for the constructor’s championship.
