In the AFC Championship Game, the Kansas City Chiefs will face the Buffalo Bills for the right to play in Super Bowl LIX. Kansas City has owned the Bills in the postseason historically and will look to continue to do so in this legacy-defining clash from Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs are 1.5-point favorites going into this matchup, while oddsmakers have set the total for this game at 48.5 points.
Here, we have broken down the Bills vs Chiefs AFC Championship Game. Continue reading to find our keys to this game for both teams, along with some background on how both of these teams ended up here. You can also find our best bet for this game, as we have used our NFL betting model to identify where the best bet is for this clash of the titans in the AFC.
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Bills Look to End Postseason Curse Against Kansas City
The Buffalo Bills got to the AFC Championship Game by defeating the Baltimore Ravens at home in the Divisional playoff round. The Bills beat the Chiefs in the regular season in Orchard Park. But this game is being held in Kansas City and is taking place in the playoffs, where the Bills have seen their season end at the hands of the Chiefs multiple times during the Josh Allen vs Patrick Mahomes rivalry.
Going into this game, NFL betting sites have made the Bills slight underdogs. For Buffalo to win this game, running the football effectively will be the key. Doing so will allow the Bills to be less predictable on third downs and will prevent Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo from dialing up his signature blitzes in more obvious passing situations. This will include Bills quarterback Josh Allen moving the ball on the ground, something he did effectively in the regular season meeting between these teams.
Chiefs Look For Another Super Bowl Berth
The Kansas City Chiefs are just two wins away from a third straight Super Bowl title. In the Divisional playoffs, the Chiefs defeated the Houston Texans to advance to this stage of the postseason. In that game, the Chiefs defense locked down CJ Stroud and the Texans offense. But the Chiefs defense faces a tougher task in this game as they have to face a Buffalo offense that can hurt them in a number of different ways.
The Chiefs have a reputation for being an explosive offensive team thanks to the presence of Mahomes and Travis Kelce. But their defense has carried them through this season. The question for Kansas City is whether their defense can lock down Allen and the Buffalo offense. Kansas City was outgained 366-259 in Orchard Park in the regular season and Spagnuolo’s defense will certainly look to avenge that performance in this game.
Bills vs Chiefs Prediction
Our prediction for Bills vs Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game is for the Buffalo Bills to win as a slight underdog on the road. The Chiefs certainly have proven over the years that they are the team to beat until someone can prove otherwise. But this Buffalo team is playing better offensive football right now. Look for Josh Allen to get to his first Super Bowl in what should be an instant classic in Kansas City.
