The Phoenix Suns have home court advantage for what has become a best-of-three series against the Los Angeles Lakers. That may not be the only advantage that they’ll have in Game 5.
Reports have come out that Anthony Davis is unlikely to play on Tuesday night when the Lakers and Suns meet in the swing game of the series. With the first four games split down the middle, Game 5 means control of the series and greatly improves one team’s chance of advancing. Right now, it looks like the Suns, who are favored by five points at Wynn Sportsbook with a total of 207.5.
Los Angeles Lakers
The loss of Anthony Davis for even one game in this series would be devastating to the Lakers. Davis is tied with LeBron James as the leading scorer in the series with 87 points. Davis has scored 35 of those points at the free throw line, so he hasn’t been all that effective from the floor, but he’s shot 83.3% at the stripe to really help the cause.
LeBron is not right. At all. His ankle clearly remains a problem and maybe his age has caught up with him a little bit as well. He’s 34-of-69 from the field and just 9-of-28 on three-point shots. He’s also got 19 turnovers in the series and has only made 10 of 17 free throws. James just doesn’t look like the playoff force that we are used to seeing and the supporting cast hasn’t done a whole lot either.
Dennis Schroder has scored 66 points, but nobody else has even scored 40 points for the Lakers. Schroder only has 13 assists against nine turnovers. Davis’s Usage Rate in the series is 27.8%, so the Lakers are going to find to find somebody to make up for that production if he is out. Even if he isn’t, it’s clear that Davis, who has been injured a lot over the course of his career, is less than 100%. He was 2-of-9 from the floor in Game 4 before missing the entire second half with a strained groin.
Andre Drummond has played well, but he isn’t a big scoring threat. What could happen is that the Lakers go small and speed up a little bit in hopes of throwing something new at the Suns. What could also happen is what we saw in Game 4 with a snail’s pace after the intermission and only 42 points from the Lakers.
The Usage Rate for James was 36.3% in Game 4, as he had the same number of assists as turnovers and struggled to make shots. We saw a lot more of Marc Gasol in the second half of the game and a lot more touches for Kyle Kuzma. The time is now for LeBron to step up and be the leader that makes everybody better.
Phoenix Suns
The Suns had better not take Davis’s likely absence for granted. It would be a huge help, but the Suns still only scored 46 points in the second half of Game 4 themselves. Devin Booker was only 5-of-14 and had to rely on others, including Chris Paul, to get the job done. Paul’s team-high 18 points over 31:41 could not have come at a better time, especially with the injuries that he has been battling in this series.
The Suns got a lot more from everybody as Booker struggled. Jae Crowder finally showed up in a big way with 17 points. Deandre Ayton needed more touches as he had the hot hand going 6-of-8 from the floor. He did pull down 17 rebounds in the win. Paul had nine assists. It was a collaborative effort from the Suns and a really good one at that.
Booker has not been at his best in this series, but the Suns have managed to escape with a 2-2 record. He’s shooting under 41% from the field and is only 5-of-19 on threes. He’s made up for it by being nearly perfect at the free throw line, but has also committed 19 turnovers.
Ayton needs more touches and more chances to be a factor in Game 5. With the Lakers thin in the frontcourt because of the Davis injury, using Ayton as a scorer and also somebody to attract some attention and some fouls would be a good plan of attack. It would also be a good idea to try and take some pressure off of Booker, who just can’t find his range in this series. For the Suns to be tied 2-2 and to be shooting under 45% from the floor and just 32.2% from three is a good sign of the depth this team has.
Lakers vs. Suns Free Pick
The question now is whether or not it’s smart to lay a price with Phoenix of this magnitude in what has been a slow series without a lot of pace. The Lakers and Suns are not moving up and down the floor with any urgency and a lot of baskets have been a struggle. Two games in this series have stayed under 200 points, which is almost unheard of in today’s NBA.
I have to look at the under here as well. It’s hard to see a big LeBron effort, but this line is getting a bit too big.
NBA Pick: Under 207.5