Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Betting Pick & Preview – 5/27/2024

Washington Nationals

Washington Nationals

May 27, 2024

Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 27, 2024
  • Venue: Truist Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Mitchell Parker - Nationals
    • Charlie Morton - Braves

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Nationals 170, Braves -200
Runline: Nationals 1.5 -125, Braves -1.5 105
Over/Under Total: 9 100

Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Washington Nationals - 36% Washington Nationals - 35.73%
Atlanta Braves - 64% Atlanta Braves - 64.27%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

In a National League East matchup, the Atlanta Braves will host the Washington Nationals at Truist Park on May 27, 2024. The Braves, with a record of 30-20, are having a great season and look to continue their success as the home team. On the other hand, the Nationals, with a record of 23-28, are having a below-average season and will try to turn things around as the away team.

The Braves are projected to start right-handed pitcher Charlie Morton, who has been performing well this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Morton is the #86 best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating that he is above average. In contrast, the Nationals are projected to start left-handed pitcher Mitchell Parker, who ranks among the worst pitchers in MLB according to our Power Rankings.

Morton has started 9 games this year and holds a Win/Loss record of 3-1 with an impressive ERA of 3.35. However, his peripheral indicators suggest that he has been lucky this year and may not perform as well going forward. His 3.87 SIERA and 3.89 FIP are both higher than his ERA, indicating potential regression.

Parker, on the other hand, has started 7 games with a Win/Loss record of 3-2 and an ERA of 3.32. While his ERA is impressive, his projections indicate that he may struggle in this matchup. He is expected to pitch an average of 4.3 innings, allow 2.9 earned runs, and strike out 3.9 batters per game. Additionally, he is projected to allow 5.0 hits and 1.9 walks on average, which are not favorable numbers.

Offensively, the Braves have been impressive this season, ranking as the 7th best team in MLB. They lead the league in team batting average and home runs, showcasing their power at the plate. In contrast, the Nationals rank as the 28th best team in MLB offensively, struggling to produce consistent results.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Braves have the 4th best bullpen in MLB according to our Power Rankings, while the Nationals rank 29th. This could give the Braves an advantage in the later innings of the game.

In terms of betting odds, the Braves are heavily favored with a moneyline of -195, giving them an implied win probability of 64%. The Nationals, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +165 and an implied win probability of 36%.

Based on the projections and team performance, the Braves have a strong advantage in this matchup. However, baseball is an unpredictable game, and anything can happen on any given day. The Nationals will look to defy the odds and turn their season around with a victory. The stage is set for an exciting game at Truist Park.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Mitchell Parker's 2164-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 24th percentile among all starting pitchers.

  • Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

In terms of his home runs, Nick Senzel has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season. His 24.3 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 15.1.

  • xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Washington Nationals bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Compared to league average, Charlie Morton has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an additional 3.4 adjusted pitches each game.

  • Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Travis d'Arnaud has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (76% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.

  • The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Adam Duvall pulls many of his flyballs (42.2% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 3rd-deepest LF fences today.

  • This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 48 games (+14.55 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 26 away games (+7.15 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Ozzie Albies has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+8.85 Units / 30% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.18 vs Atlanta Braves 5.39

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+179
9% WSH
-214
91% ATL

Total Pick Consensus

9.0/-110
10% UN
9.0/-110
90% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-118
7% WSH
-1.5/-102
93% ATL

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
WSH
Team Stats
ATL
4.88
ERA
3.86
.265
Batting Avg Against
.240
1.45
WHIP
1.28
.300
BABIP
.300
9.4%
BB%
8.7%
19.5%
K%
24.5%
72.7%
LOB%
74.1%
.259
Batting Avg
.275
.400
SLG
.502
.719
OPS
.847
.319
OBP
.345
WSH
Team Records
ATL
23-24
Home
30-19
24-29
Road
24-25
31-39
vRHP
35-32
16-14
vLHP
19-12
25-41
vs>.500
34-29
22-12
vs<.500
20-15
5-5
Last10
5-5
9-11
Last20
10-10
13-17
Last30
16-14
M. Parker
C. Morton
N/A
Innings
128.2
N/A
GS
23
N/A
W-L
11-10
N/A
ERA
3.71
N/A
K/9
9.51
N/A
BB/9
4.55
N/A
HR/9
0.91
N/A
LOB%
78.2%
N/A
HR/FB%
10.9%
N/A
FIP
4.17
N/A
xFIP
4.37

M. Parker

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

C. Morton

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/3 NYM
Peterson N/A
L4-5 N/A
5.2
6
5
4
3
3
63-99
4/27 CHC
Jr N/A
L3-6 N/A
2.1
4
3
3
1
4
38-70
4/20 LAD
Gonsolin N/A
L1-5 N/A
5.1
6
4
4
4
3
49-95
4/14 SD
Musgrove N/A
L1-12 N/A
5
9
5
5
5
3
58-95
4/8 CIN
Sanmartin N/A
W7-6 N/A
5.1
2
2
2
5
1
51-78

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
WSH ATL
WSH ATL
Consensus
+178
-200
+179
-214
+170
-205
+170
-205
+188
-225
+172
-205
+165
-195
+185
-225
+170
-205
+175
-210
+165
-200
+170
-210
Open
Current
Book
WSH ATL
WSH ATL
Consensus
+1.5 (-114)
-1.5 (-108)
+1.5 (-114)
-1.5 (-107)
+1.5 (-115)
-1.5 (+105)
+1.5 (-115)
-1.5 (-105)
+1.5 (-115)
-1.5 (-106)
+1.5 (-115)
-1.5 (-104)
+1.5 (-115)
-1.5 (+108)
+1.5 (-115)
-1.5 (-106)
+1.5 (-115)
-1.5 (+105)
+1.5 (-115)
-1.5 (-105)
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (+105)
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (-110)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (-102)
9.0 (-110)
9.0 (-111)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
9.0 (-110)
9.0 (-110)
8.5 (-122)
8.5 (+100)
9.0 (-110)
9.0 (-110)
9.0 (-103)
9.0 (-120)
9.0 (-108)
9.0 (-113)
8.5 (-125)
8.5 (+105)
9.0 (-110)
9.0 (-110)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (+100)
9.0 (-110)
9.0 (-110)