Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox Pick & Prediction – 5/27/2024

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays

May 27, 2024

Chicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 27, 2024
  • Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays
    • Nick Nastrini - White Sox

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Blue Jays -190, White Sox 165
Runline: Blue Jays -1.5 -110, White Sox 1.5 -110
Over/Under Total: 8.5 -120

Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Toronto Blue Jays - 63% Toronto Blue Jays - 64.33%
Chicago White Sox - 37% Chicago White Sox - 35.67%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated American League matchup, the Chicago White Sox are set to host the Toronto Blue Jays on May 27, 2024, at Guaranteed Rate Field. The White Sox, who have had a rough season so far with a record of 15-39, will be looking to turn their fortunes around against the Blue Jays, who have struggled as well with a record of 23-29.

On the mound, the White Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Nick Nastrini, who has had a challenging season. Nastrini has started three games, with a win-loss record of 0-3 and an ERA of 11.91, which is considered to be horrible. However, his 7.68 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward.

In contrast, the Blue Jays are projected to start right-handed pitcher Chris Bassitt, who has been performing above average this season. Bassitt has started ten games, with a win-loss record of 4-6 and an ERA of 4.39.

The White Sox offense has struggled this season, ranking as the worst in MLB. They have also ranked poorly in team batting average, home runs, and stolen bases. On the other hand, the Blue Jays offense has been more average, ranking 19th in MLB. However, they have excelled in team batting average, ranking 5th in the league.

Overall, this game presents a matchup between struggling teams. While the White Sox have had a terrible season, the Blue Jays have fared slightly better. With Chris Bassitt on the mound, the Blue Jays' above-average pitching may give them an edge against the struggling White Sox offense. However, baseball is a game of surprises, and anything can happen on any given day.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the the Toronto Blue Jays.

  • Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Danny Jansen's quickness has declined this year. His 27.12 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 26.46 ft/sec now.

  • Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Bo Bichette has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 9th-shallowest RF fences today.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Nick Nastrini is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #3 HR venue among all major league stadiums today.

  • This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Toronto's #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Paul DeJong, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

  • This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Chicago White Sox have been the unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better going forward

  • When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

  • The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 23 games (+3.15 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 29 games (+6.05 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 38 games (+13.35 Units / 28% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 5.71 vs Chicago White Sox 3.95

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-207
84% TOR
+173
16% CHW

Total Pick Consensus

9.0/-105
13% UN
9.0/-115
87% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/-130
90% TOR
+1.5/+110
10% CHW

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
TOR
Team Stats
CHW
3.68
ERA
4.60
.238
Batting Avg Against
.242
1.24
WHIP
1.38
.294
BABIP
.295
8.0%
BB%
10.2%
25.1%
K%
24.3%
76.4%
LOB%
72.5%
.260
Batting Avg
.238
.415
SLG
.386
.746
OPS
.681
.331
OBP
.295
TOR
Team Records
CHW
21-24
Home
17-32
22-27
Road
10-37
36-40
vRHP
20-55
7-11
vLHP
7-14
28-41
vs>.500
20-49
15-10
vs<.500
7-20
5-5
Last10
3-7
8-12
Last20
7-13
12-18
Last30
10-20
C. Bassitt
N. Nastrini
145.2
Innings
N/A
25
GS
N/A
11-6
W-L
N/A
3.95
ERA
N/A
8.46
K/9
N/A
2.97
BB/9
N/A
1.36
HR/9
N/A
74.9%
LOB%
N/A
13.8%
HR/FB%
N/A
4.57
FIP
N/A
4.40
xFIP
N/A
.237
AVG
N/A
22.3%
K%
N/A
7.8%
BB%
N/A
4.35
SIERA
N/A

C. Bassitt

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/2 ATL
Fried N/A
L2-5 N/A
7
6
3
3
8
1
64-95
4/26 STL
Hicks N/A
W3-0 N/A
6
2
0
0
6
3
55-94
4/20 SF
Rodon N/A
L2-5 N/A
6
8
5
5
6
1
62-97
4/15 ARI
Davies N/A
W10-3 N/A
6
2
1
1
6
2
64-98
4/9 WSH
Adon N/A
W5-0 N/A
6
3
0
0
8
1
66-93

N. Nastrini

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
TOR CHW
TOR CHW
Consensus
-200
+168
-207
+173
-192
+160
-205
+170
-200
+168
-200
+168
-200
+165
-215
+180
-190
+158
-210
+175
-190
+155
-200
+165
Open
Current
Book
TOR CHW
TOR CHW
Consensus
-1.5 (-130)
+1.5 (+108)
-1.5 (-130)
+1.5 (+107)
-1.5 (-130)
+1.5 (+105)
-1.5 (-130)
+1.5 (+110)
-1.5 (-122)
+1.5 (+108)
-1.5 (-122)
+1.5 (+102)
-1.5 (-130)
+1.5 (-104)
-1.5 (-130)
+1.5 (+107)
-1.5 (-130)
+1.5 (-105)
-1.5 (-130)
+1.5 (+110)
-1.5 (-120)
+1.5 (+105)
-1.5 (-120)
+1.5 (+100)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.5 (-135)
8.5 (+112)
9.0 (-112)
9.0 (-109)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (+100)
9.0 (-110)
9.0 (-110)
9.0 (-110)
9.0 (-110)
9.0 (-110)
9.0 (-110)
8.5 (-122)
8.5 (+102)
9.0 (-112)
9.0 (-108)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (+100)
9.0 (-110)
9.0 (-110)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (+100)
9.0 (-110)
9.0 (-110)