Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers Best Bet – 5/27/2024

Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs

May 27, 2024

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 27, 2024
  • Venue: American Family Field
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Justin Steele - Cubs
    • Robert Gasser - Brewers

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Cubs 105, Brewers -125
Runline: Cubs 1.5 -195, Brewers -1.5 165
Over/Under Total: 8 -110

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Chicago Cubs - 47% Chicago Cubs - 54%
Milwaukee Brewers - 53% Milwaukee Brewers - 46%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

In a highly-anticipated National League Central matchup, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Chicago Cubs at American Family Field. The game is scheduled to be played on May 27, 2024.

The Brewers, currently boasting a season record of 30-22, are having a great season. As the home team, they will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage. On the other hand, the Cubs hold a season record of 27-26, indicating an average season thus far.

Taking the mound for the Brewers is left-handed pitcher Robert Gasser, who has been solid this season. He has started 3 games and holds a 2-0 win/loss record with an impressive ERA of 2.65. However, his 4.63 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky and may not perform as well going forward.

The Cubs will counter with left-handed pitcher Justin Steele. Steele has started 5 games this season but has struggled with a 0-2 win/loss record and a high ERA of 5.68. However, his 3.93 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and may perform better in future outings.

This game marks the first in a series between the Brewers and Cubs, adding to the excitement and intensity. In their last games, the Brewers lost to the Red Sox with a close score of 2-1, while the Cubs suffered a 4-3 defeat against the Cardinals.

The Brewers' offense has been impressive this season, ranking as the 4th best in MLB. However, their team batting average ranks lower at 27th. Meanwhile, the Cubs' offense ranks 20th overall, with a strong team batting average of 9th in the league.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, the Brewers have the 12th best bullpen in MLB, while the Cubs hold the 10th spot. This suggests that both teams have reliable relief pitchers to support their starting pitchers.

In terms of betting odds, the Brewers enter the game as favorites with a moneyline of -125 and an implied win probability of 53%. The Cubs, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +105 and an implied win probability of 47%.

The projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, give the Cubs a slight edge with a win probability of 54%, which is 7% higher than the betting market suggests. This indicates potential value in betting on the Cubs.

Based on the current odds, the Brewers have an average implied team total of 4.14 runs, while the Cubs have an average implied team total of 3.86 runs. THE BAT X projects the Brewers to score 4.29 runs on average in this game, while the Cubs project to score 4.96 runs.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Justin Steele's 2403-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season grades out in the 79th percentile among all starting pitchers.

  • Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Ian Happ is penciled in 7th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Chicago Cubs have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in future games

  • When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Recording 76.8 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Robert Gasser falls in the 5th percentile.

  • Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Blake Perkins's footspeed has declined this year. His 30.02 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 29.12 ft/sec now.

  • Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Milwaukee's 88.3-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is one of the worst in MLB: #25 overall.

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 52 games (+10.85 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 41 games (+10.45 Units / 23% ROI)
  • William Contreras has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 48 games (+9.50 Units / 16% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.95 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.3

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-113
25% CHC
-106
75% MIL

Total Pick Consensus

8.0/-108
2% UN
8.0/-112
98% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/+160
11% CHC
+1.5/-192
89% MIL

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
CHC
Team Stats
MIL
4.22
ERA
4.04
.243
Batting Avg Against
.232
1.29
WHIP
1.22
.289
BABIP
.275
8.3%
BB%
8.2%
22.0%
K%
23.0%
71.1%
LOB%
73.6%
.255
Batting Avg
.233
.419
SLG
.377
.751
OPS
.689
.332
OBP
.312
CHC
Team Records
MIL
25-21
Home
28-15
20-28
Road
26-25
39-36
vRHP
41-28
6-13
vLHP
13-12
26-29
vs>.500
22-21
19-20
vs<.500
32-19
6-4
Last10
4-6
10-10
Last20
10-10
14-16
Last30
16-14
J. Steele
R. Gasser
126.0
Innings
N/A
22
GS
N/A
13-3
W-L
N/A
2.79
ERA
N/A
8.57
K/9
N/A
2.00
BB/9
N/A
0.71
HR/9
N/A
74.3%
LOB%
N/A
8.6%
HR/FB%
N/A
3.21
FIP
N/A
3.68
xFIP
N/A
.245
AVG
N/A
22.9%
K%
N/A
5.4%
BB%
N/A
3.86
SIERA
N/A

J. Steele

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
4/30 MIL
Lauer N/A
L1-9 N/A
3
7
4
2
4
1
48-74
4/24 PIT
Brubaker N/A
L3-4 N/A
3
4
3
3
2
4
43-79
4/19 TB
Wisler N/A
L5-6 N/A
2.2
3
4
4
1
3
25-48
4/14 COL
Freeland N/A
W5-2 N/A
4.1
5
2
2
4
2
47-80
4/9 MIL
Woodruff N/A
W9-0 N/A
5
4
0
0
5
1
46-77

R. Gasser

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
CHC MIL
CHC MIL
Consensus
-105
-110
-113
-106
-105
-115
-115
-105
-110
-106
-112
-104
-136
+116
-112
-106
-105
-115
-115
-105
-115
-105
-115
-105
Open
Current
Book
CHC MIL
CHC MIL
Consensus
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-181)
-1.5 (+148)
+1.5 (-183)
-1.5 (+160)
+1.5 (-192)
-1.5 (+160)
+1.5 (-192)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-172)
-1.5 (+146)
+1.5 (-176)
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-182)
+1.5 (-225)
-1.5 (+170)
+1.5 (-225)
-1.5 (+185)
-1.5 (+145)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+145)
+1.5 (-175)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-114)
8.0 (-107)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-112)
8.0 (-108)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.5 (-118)
8.5 (-103)
8.0 (-118)
8.0 (-104)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-120)
8.0 (+100)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)