Washington Nationals vs Chicago White Sox Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 15, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Patrick Corbin - Nationals
  • Garrett Crochet - White Sox

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

The Chicago White Sox are set to host the Washington Nationals in an Interleague matchup on May 15, 2024, at Guaranteed Rate Field. The White Sox, currently having a terrible season with a record of 13-30, will look to turn things around against the Nationals, who are having an average season with a record of 20-21.

On the mound for the White Sox will be left-handed pitcher Garrett Crochet, who is considered one of the best starting pitchers in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Crochet has started 9 games this year, with a win/loss record of 3-4 and an ERA of 4.63. However, his 2.55 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky this season and is likely to perform better going forward.

Opposing Crochet will be left-handed pitcher Patrick Corbin of the Nationals. Corbin has struggled this season, with a win/loss record of 1-3 and an ERA of 5.91. His 4.26 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky as well and has the potential to improve in future outings.

In terms of offense, the White Sox rank as the worst team in MLB this season. They have struggled in various categories, including team batting average, home runs, and stolen bases. On the other hand, the Nationals have a slightly better offense, ranking 22nd in team batting average and 14th in stolen bases.

When it comes to the bullpens, both teams are ranked towards the bottom of MLB. The White Sox rank 26th, while the Nationals rank last at 30th. This could be a factor to consider when evaluating the late innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, the White Sox are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -140, giving them an implied win probability of 56%. The Nationals, as the underdogs, have a moneyline of +120 and an implied win probability of 44%.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

The Washington Nationals outfield defense profiles as the strongest out of all the teams playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Jacob Young has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (62% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Washington Nationals with a 18.7% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Garrett Crochet has a mean projection of 17.2 outs in today's game, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Andrew Benintendi has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox' bullpen ranks as the 5th-worst among all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+3.05 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 20 of their last 30 games (+10.35 Units / 27% ROI)
• Keibert Ruiz has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 11 games (+6.55 Units / 60% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 3.59 vs Chicago White Sox 4.53

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.