Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 15, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Taj Bradley - Rays
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays will be facing off against the Boston Red Sox in an American League East matchup at Fenway Park on May 15, 2024. The Red Sox, who currently hold a record of 22-20 this season, will be playing as the home team, while the Rays, with a record of 21-22, will be the away team.

The Red Sox are having an above-average season, ranking 11th in MLB for team performance. They have a strong offense, currently ranking 3rd in team batting average. However, their power rankings consider their bullpen as the 23rd best in MLB. The Rays, on the other hand, are having an average season, ranking 14th in MLB for team performance. They have a balanced offense, ranking 9th in team batting average and 4th in team home runs. Their bullpen is considered the 10th best in MLB.

The Red Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Tanner Houck, who has been performing exceptionally well this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Houck is ranked as the 25th best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. He has started 8 games this year, with a win/loss record of 3-4 and an impressive ERA of 2.24. However, his 2.80 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky this year and could potentially perform worse going forward.

The Rays are projected to start right-handed pitcher Taj Bradley, who is also having a solid season. Bradley is ranked as the 65th best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. He has started 1 game this year, with a win/loss record of 0-1 and an excellent ERA of 1.50. However, his 3.22 xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky this year and could regress in future performances.

Given the strengths of the Red Sox offense and the performance of Tanner Houck, who is known for inducing groundballs, the Rays' powerful home run-hitting lineup may struggle to capitalize on their strength in this matchup.

According to the current odds, the Red Sox are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -140, implying a win probability of 56%. The Rays, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +120, implying a win probability of 44%. The Red Sox have a higher implied team total of 4.27 runs, while the Rays have a lower implied team total of 3.73 runs.

Overall, this game promises to be an intriguing matchup between the strong offense and pitching of the Red Sox and the balanced performance of the Rays. Both teams will be looking to secure a victory and gain an edge in the competitive American League East division.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Taj Bradley is projected to throw 84 pitches in today's outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 5th-least of all pitchers today.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Typically, hitters like Amed Rosario who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Tanner Houck.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Placing 6th-least steep in baseball since the start of last season, Tampa Bay Rays batters jointly have recorded a 11.5° launch angle on their hardest-contacted balls (an advanced standard to measure power ability).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Tanner Houck has utilized his non-fastballs 9.4% more often this year (69.9%) than he did last year (60.5%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Romy Gonzalez's 13.8% Barrel% (an advanced stat to evaluate power) grades out in the 90th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Boston Red Sox bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.60 Units / 45% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 away games (+6.65 Units / 35% ROI)
• Yandy Diaz has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+7.90 Units / 198% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.03 vs Boston Red Sox 4.3

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