Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 12, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated Interleague matchup, the Boston Red Sox are set to take on the Washington Nationals at Fenway Park on May 12, 2024. The Red Sox, with a season record of 20-19, are having an average season so far. They will be the home team for this game, while the Nationals, with a record of 19-19, are also having an average season and will be the away team.

The Red Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Brayan Bello, who has been performing above average this season. On the other hand, the Nationals are projected to start left-handed pitcher MacKenzie Gore, who is considered a good pitcher in the league.

This game will be the third in a series between these two teams. In their last game, the Red Sox emerged victorious with a score of 4-2. They were the favorites with a closing Moneyline price of -155 and an implied win probability of 59%. The Nationals, as underdogs with a closing Moneyline price of +135 and an implied win probability of 41%, fell short in their last game against the Red Sox.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Brayan Bello is ranked as the 66th best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. This indicates that he is above average. MacKenzie Gore, ranked 50th, is considered a good starting pitcher.

Brayan Bello has started five games this year and holds a win/loss record of 3-1. His ERA stands at an impressive 3.04, indicating strong performance. However, his peripheral indicators suggest that he has been lucky this year and may perform worse going forward.

MacKenzie Gore has started seven games this year and holds a win/loss record of 2-3. His ERA is 3.44, which is also commendable. However, his peripheral indicators suggest that he may perform worse going forward.

The Red Sox offense ranks as the 11th best in MLB this season, with a strong team batting average. They rank 18th in team home runs and 16th in team stolen bases. On the other hand, the Nationals offense ranks as the 22nd best in MLB. However, they have a solid team batting average and rank 6th in that category.

Based on the current odds, the Red Sox are favored to win this game with a moneyline of -150, implying a win probability of 58%. The Nationals are the underdogs with a moneyline of +130, implying a win probability of 42%. THE BAT X projects the Red Sox to have a 57% chance of winning, while the Nationals have a projected win probability of 43%.

Given the projections and the overall performance of the teams, the Red Sox are expected to score an average of 4.50 runs in this game, while the Nationals are projected to score an average of 4.11 runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Tallying 14.6 outs per start this year on average, MacKenzie Gore places in the 21st percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

This year, there has been a decline in Jacob Young's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 30 ft/sec last year to 29.44 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Washington Nationals bullpen grades out as the worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Brayan Bello's higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (60.3% vs. 43.1% last season) figures to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Despite posting a .410 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Connor Wong has been very fortunate given the .111 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .299.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Jarren Duran has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 53 games at home (+9.00 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 86 games (+20.55 Units / 23% ROI)
• CJ Abrams has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+9.55 Units / 42% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.11 vs Boston Red Sox 4.5

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