Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 12, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Walker Buehler - Dodgers
  • Yu Darvish - Padres

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

On May 12, 2024, the San Diego Padres will face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Petco Park in a National League West matchup. The Padres, with a season record of 21-21, are having an average season, while the Dodgers boast an impressive record of 27-14, indicating a great season for them.

The Padres are projected to start right-handed pitcher Yu Darvish, who has been performing above average this season according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Darvish has started 7 games this year, with a win/loss record of 2-1 and an ERA of 2.94, which is excellent. However, his 3.85 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could potentially perform worse going forward.

On the other side, the Dodgers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Walker Buehler. Buehler has started 1 game this year, with an ERA of 6.75, which is not ideal. However, his 2.95 xFIP indicates that he may have been unlucky and could perform better in the future.

In their last game, the Padres faced the Dodgers and lost by a score of 5-0. The Padres were considered underdogs with a closing Moneyline price of +125 and an implied win probability of 43%. Meanwhile, the Dodgers were the favorites with a closing Moneyline price of -145 and an implied win probability of 57%.

The Padres offense ranks as the 12th best in MLB this season, while the Dodgers boast the top-ranked offense. The Padres offense ranks 20th in team batting average, 10th in team home runs, and 7th in team stolen bases. The Dodgers offense, on the other hand, ranks 12th in team batting average, 2nd in team home runs, but only 20th in team stolen bases.

The Padres' best hitter this season has been Fernando Tatis Jr., while the Dodgers' best hitter has been Shohei Ohtani. Both players have been performing exceptionally well, contributing significantly to their respective teams' success.

Based on the current odds, the Padres have an average implied team total of 3.81 runs, while the Dodgers have an average implied team total of 4.19 runs. THE BAT X projects a close game, with a 50% win probability for both teams.

Considering the pitching matchup and the offensive prowess of the Dodgers, they may have an advantage in this game. However, the Padres will be looking to bounce back from their previous loss and put up a fight against their division rivals.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Throwing 74 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Walker Buehler ranks in the 5th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

This season, there has been a decline in Austin Barnes's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.45 ft/sec last year to 25.64 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Los Angeles Dodgers bats collectively grade out 5th- in the majors for power since the start of last season when judging by their 9.2% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Yu Darvish has gone to his sinker 5.6% less often this season (13.1%) than he did last season (18.7%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Jackson Merrill has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .297 rate is quite a bit lower than his .402 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 16 games (+11.05 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 49 away games (+14.15 Units / 23% ROI)
• James Outman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+13.25 Units / 43% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.74 vs San Diego Padres 4.42

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