Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 12, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Justin Verlander - Astros
  • Jack Flaherty - Tigers

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

In an American League matchup, the Detroit Tigers will host the Houston Astros on May 12, 2024, at Comerica Park. The Tigers, with a season record of 20-19, are having an average season, while the struggling Astros hold a record of 14-25. The Tigers are the home team for this game, and they will look to capitalize on their recent victory over the Astros.

The Tigers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jack Flaherty, who is ranked as the #49 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Flaherty has started seven games this year, with a win/loss record of 0-2. Despite his record, Flaherty has shown promise with an ERA of 3.86. His xFIP of 2.26 suggests that he has been unlucky this season and is likely to perform better going forward.

On the other side, the Astros will send Justin Verlander to the mound. Verlander, ranked #52 in our Power Rankings, has started four games this year, with a win/loss record of 1-1 and an ERA of 4.43. However, his 5.35 xFIP indicates that he has been lucky and may not perform as well in future games.

Flaherty, known for his high strikeout rate, will face a low-strikeout Astros offense, which could give the Astros an advantage. Meanwhile, Verlander, a high-flyball pitcher, will face a Tigers offense that has struggled to hit home runs this season, potentially favoring Verlander.

The Tigers offense ranks as the #25 best in MLB this season, while the Astros offense ranks #7. However, the Tigers have shown improvement in their last game against the Astros, winning by a score of 8-2. The Tigers' best hitter this season has been Riley Greene, while the Astros' best hitter has been Kyle Tucker.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Tigers have a projected win probability of 48%, while the Astros have a projected win probability of 52%. The current odds reflect a close game, with the Tigers having a slight edge at -105 and the Astros at -115.

With the Tigers coming off a recent victory over the Astros and the close projected win probabilities, this game is shaping up to be an exciting matchup between two teams with different strengths.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Justin Verlander has been unlucky in regards to his strikeouts since the start of last season, compiling a 7.75 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.81 — a 1.06 K/9 difference.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Alex Bregman has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (91% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Houston Astros hitters collectively rank near the bottom of the league since the start of last season ( 8th-worst) as far as their 88.6-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

The Detroit Tigers infield defense grades out as the weakest among all the teams on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kerry Carpenter can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Spencer Torkelson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.3% — 88th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 5th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 96 games (+12.20 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 55 away games (+17.40 Units / 24% ROI)
• Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 32 games (+9.20 Units / 23% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 4.78 vs Detroit Tigers 4.21

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