Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 12, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryce Elder - Braves
  • Luis Severino - Mets

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are set to face off against the Atlanta Braves in a National League East matchup on May 12, 2024, at Citi Field. The Mets, with a record of 18-20 this season, are having a below-average performance. On the other hand, the Braves boast a great season so far, with a record of 24-12.

The Mets will have Luis Severino as their starting pitcher, a right-handed pitcher who has started seven games this year. Severino holds a win/loss record of 2-2 and an excellent ERA of 2.93. However, his 3.90 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could potentially perform worse going forward.

Opposing Severino on the mound will be Bryce Elder, a right-handed pitcher for the Braves. Elder has started three games this season, with a win/loss record of 1-1 and an ERA of 5.28. Both his 6.66 xERA and 6.36 FIP indicate that he may have been fortunate and could face challenges in future performances.

The Mets offense ranks as the 16th best in MLB this season, with an average team batting average and home run ranking. The Braves, on the other hand, boast the 5th best offense in MLB, leading in team batting average and home runs.

Looking at the projected statistics for today's game, Severino is expected to pitch an average of 5.4 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, striking out 4.8 batters, and allowing 5.0 hits and 1.8 walks. Elder, on the other hand, is projected to pitch an average of 5.7 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, striking out 3.8 batters, and allowing 5.1 hits and 2.0 walks.

The game total for today's matchup is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a potentially low-scoring game. The Mets enter the game as the underdogs with a moneyline of +110, while the Braves are favored with a moneyline of -130.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Because flyball batters are less effective against flyball pitchers, Bryce Elder (49.9% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 2 FB hitters in the opposing team's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Chadwick Tromp's 0% Barrel% (a reliable stat to assess power) is in the 0th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Jarred Kelenic hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41.9% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Luis Severino's higher usage percentage of his fastball this season (58.1 compared to 48.9% last year) is not ideal since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Omar Narvaez's speed has fallen off this season. His 24.38 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 23.2 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The New York Mets have done a favorable job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-hit balls. Their 13.9° figure is among the highest in baseball since the start of last season (#3 overall).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 108 games (+16.50 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 40 games (+12.65 Units / 28% ROI)
• Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.35 Units / 43% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.32 vs New York Mets 3.74

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.