Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 7, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are set to take on the Toronto Blue Jays in an Interleague matchup scheduled for May 7, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies, with a season record of 25-11, have been having a great season so far, while the Blue Jays have struggled with a record of 16-19, indicating a below-average performance.

The Phillies are projected to start left-handed pitcher Cristopher Sanchez, who has shown promise this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Sanchez is ranked as the 36th best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers, suggesting he is a good pitcher. In his six starts this year, Sanchez has a win/loss record of 1-3 and an ERA of 3.68, which is considered good. Additionally, his 2.95 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) indicates that he has been unlucky this season and is likely to perform even better going forward.

On the other side, the Blue Jays are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jose Berrios. Despite his below-average ranking in our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Berrios has managed a solid performance this season with a win/loss record of 4-2 and an excellent ERA of 1.44. However, his 4.23 xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) suggests that he has been somewhat lucky and may not perform as well moving forward.

The Phillies boast the 4th best offense in MLB this season, demonstrating their underlying talent regardless of actual year-to-date performance. Their offense ranks 8th in team batting average, 16th in team home runs, and 10th in team stolen bases. Conversely, the Blue Jays offense ranks as the 19th best in MLB, showing an average performance. However, they excel in team batting average, ranking 5th in the league.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Phillies are projected as the favorites with a win probability of 58%, while the Blue Jays are considered underdogs with a win probability of 42%. The implied win probability based on the current betting odds favors the Phillies as well, with a 56% chance of winning.

Based on the projections, the Phillies are expected to score an average of 4.96 runs in this game, while the Blue Jays are projected to score 4.40 runs. This indicates that the Phillies have a higher implied team total of 4.51 runs compared to the Blue Jays' average implied team total of 3.99 runs.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Jose Berrios has used his sinker 6.6% more often this season (38.1%) than he did last season (31.5%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Daulton Varsho has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (55% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Toronto's 88.6-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season ranks among the worst in the majors: #23 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Cristopher Sanchez's 93.4-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.8-mph spike from last season's 91.6-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Johan Rojas's speed has improved this year. His 29.35 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 29.96 ft/sec now.

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

Brandon Marsh has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Run Line in 39 of their last 72 games (+9.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 72 of their last 129 games (+10.19 Units / 7% ROI)
• Bo Bichette has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+8.55 Units / 26% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.5 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.04

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